Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

The minimization of negative externalities is a key aspect in the development of a circular and sustainable economic model. At the local scale, especially in urban areas, externalities are generated by the adverse impacts of air pollution on human health. Local air quality policies and plans often lack of considerations and instruments for the quantification and evaluation of external health costs. Support for decision-makers is needed, in particular during the implementation stage of air quality plans. Modelling tools based on the impact pathway approach can provide such support. In this paper, the implementation of health impacts and externalities analysis in air quality planning is evaluated. The state of the art in European member states is reported, considering whether and how health effects have been included in the planning schemes. The air quality plan of the Piemonte region in Italy is then considered. A case study is analyzed to evaluate a plan action, i.e., the development of the district heating system in the city of Turin. The DIATI (Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Ambiente, del Territorio e delle Infrastrutture) Dispersion and Externalities Model (DIDEM model) is applied to detect the scenario with the highest external cost reduction. This methodology results are extensible and adaptable to other actions and measures, as well as other local policies in Europe. The use of health externalities should be encouraged and integrated into the present methodology supporting air quality planning. Efforts should be addressed to quantify and minimize the overall uncertainty of the process.

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Source Apportionment and Integrated Assessment Modelling for Air Quality Planning

Electronics ◽

10.3390/electronics9071098 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 1098

Author(s):

Elena De Angelis ◽

Claudio Carnevale ◽

Enrico Turrini ◽

Marialuisa Volta

Keyword(s):

Air Quality ◽

Source Apportionment ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Road Transport ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Optimization Approach ◽

Quality Planning ◽

Residential Heating ◽

Integrated Assessment Modelling ◽

Air Quality Planning

In Northern Italy a large fraction of the population is exposed to PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations that exceed the European limit values and the stricter WHO air quality guidelines. For this reason, in 2017 four Regions (Piemonte, Lombardia, Veneto, and Emilia Romagna) and the national Ministry of the Environment adopted a set of joint measures, namely the “Po Basin air quality plan”. The plan mainly tackles emission from road transport, residential heating, and agriculture. Air quality plans at regional and local scale are usually implemented defining a set of emission abatement measures, starting from experts’ knowledge. The aim of this work is to define a methodology that helps decision makers in air quality planning, combining two different approaches: Source-Apportionment techniques (SA) and Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). These techniques have been applied over a domain in Northern Italy to analyze the contribution of emission sources on PM10 concentration and to compute an optimal policy, obtained through a multi-objective optimization approach that minimizes both the PM10 yearly average concentration and the policy implementation costs. The results are compared to the Po Basin air quality plan impacts. The source-apportionment technique and the IAM optimization approach show intervention priorities in three main sectors: residential heating, agriculture, and road transport. The Po Basin air quality plan is effective in reducing PM10 concentrations, but not efficient, as a matter of fact the cost-effective policy at the same cost has a higher impact on air quality and on greenhouse gases emissions reduction.

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