Re: Karim Fizazi, Charles G. Drake, Tomasz M. Beer, et al. Final Analysis of the Ipilimumab Versus Placebo Following Radiotherapy Phase III Trial in Postdocetaxel Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Identifies an Excess of Long-term Survivors. Eur Urol. In press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eururo.2020.07.032

57 Background: Our understanding of immunotherapies for prostate cancer (PSA-TRICOM, sipuleucel-T, ipilimumab) is incomplete in that such therapies have improved overall survival (OS) without changes in time to progression (TTP) in randomized trials. In an effort to better understand this discrepancy, we evaluated data from studies of PSA-TRICOM. A pox viral vaccine expressing PSA and 3 T-cell co-stimulatory molecules, PSA-TRICOM has demonstrated PSA-specific immune responses and evidence of clinical activity that supported initiation of a currently accruing Phase III trial. An analysis of NCI PCa trials (including a PSA-TRICOM trial) suggests that immune therapies may eventually slow the growth rate (GR) of tumors, leading to unaltered short term TTP, yet improved OS (Stein et al. Clin Can Res. 2011). Methods: PSA-TRICOM was administered to 50 hormone-naïve patients (pts.) with non-metastatic, castration naive PCa in a multi-center trial (ECOG 9802). Pts were treated every 4 weeks for 3 months, then every 12 weeks (preliminary data previously reported, DiPaola, RS et al. ASCO GU 2009). PSA values were used to calculate tumor GR within the first 100 days of treatment. (Pts were given no additional therapies during this time.) As previously described, a two-phase mathematical equation yielded concomitant PSA GR and regression rate constants.(Stein et. al., 2011) Results: See Table. Conclusions: These data suggest that PSA-TRICOM can alter GR significantly within 3 months. If confirmed in future trials, it could explain why vaccines have demonstrated improved OS without improved TTP. A slowing of the GR may not lead to substantial differences in short term TTP, but may enhance OS in the long term. This concept will be evaluated in an international Phase III trial of PSA-TRICOM in minimally symptomatic, metastatic castration-resistant PCa that is currently recruiting pts. Clinical trial information: NCT00108732. [Table: see text]

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Updated Prognostic Model for Predicting Overall Survival in First-Line Chemotherapy for Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2013.52.3696 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 32 (7) ◽

pp. 671-677 ◽

Cited By ~ 247

Author(s):

Susan Halabi ◽

Chen-Yen Lin ◽

W. Kevin Kelly ◽

Karim S. Fizazi ◽

Judd W. Moul ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Prognostic Model ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Phase Iii ◽

Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer ◽

First Line ◽

Phase Iii Trial ◽

Castration Resistant ◽

Validation Set ◽

Line Chemotherapy

Purpose Prognostic models for overall survival (OS) for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) are dated and do not reflect significant advances in treatment options available for these patients. This work developed and validated an updated prognostic model to predict OS in patients receiving first-line chemotherapy. Methods Data from a phase III trial of 1,050 patients with mCRPC were used (Cancer and Leukemia Group B CALGB-90401 [Alliance]). The data were randomly split into training and testing sets. A separate phase III trial served as an independent validation set. Adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator selected eight factors prognostic for OS. A predictive score was computed from the regression coefficients and used to classify patients into low- and high-risk groups. The model was assessed for its predictive accuracy using the time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results The model included Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, disease site, lactate dehydrogenase, opioid analgesic use, albumin, hemoglobin, prostate-specific antigen, and alkaline phosphatase. Median OS values in the high- and low-risk groups, respectively, in the testing set were 17 and 30 months (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; P < .001); in the validation set they were 14 and 26 months (HR, 2.9; P < .001). The tAUCs were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.73) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76) in the testing and validation sets, respectively. Conclusion An updated prognostic model for OS in patients with mCRPC receiving first-line chemotherapy was developed and validated on an external set. This model can be used to predict OS, as well as to better select patients to participate in trials on the basis of their prognosis.

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