Abstract
Crop models can be used to explain yield variations associated with management practices, environment and genotype. This study aimed to assess the effect of plant densities using CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean for low latitudes. The crop model was calibrated and evaluated using data from field experiments, including plant densities (10, 20, 30 and 40 plants per m2), maturity groups (MG 7.7 and 8.8) and sowing dates (calibration: 06 Jan., 19 Jan., 16 Feb. 2018; and evaluation: 19 Jan. 2019). The model simulated phenology with a bias lower than 2 days for calibration and 7 days for evaluation. Relative root mean square error for the maximum leaf area index varied from 12.2 to 31.3%; while that for grain yield varied between 3 and 32%. The calibrated model was used to simulate different management scenarios across six sites located in the low latitude, considering 33 growing seasons. Simulations showed a higher yield for 40 pl per m2, as expected, but with greater yield gain increments occurring at low plant density going from 10 to 20 pl per m2. In Santarém, Brazil, MG 8.8 sown on 21 Feb. had a median yield of 2658, 3197, 3442 and 3583 kg/ha, respectively, for 10, 20, 30 and 40 pl per m2, resulting in a relative increase of 20, 8 and 4% for each additional 10 pl per m2. Overall, the crop model had adequate performance, indicating a minimum recommended plant density of 20 pl per m2, while sowing dates and maturity groups showed different yield level and pattern across sites in function of the local climate.
Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles