The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 876-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Eichler ◽  
Alexander Karmann ◽  
Dominik Maltritz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Data

Elections, Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandice Canes-Wrone ◽  
Jee-Kwang Park
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Survey Analysis ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Private Actors

This article argues that the policy uncertainty generated by elections encourages private actors to delay investments that entail high costs of reversal, creating pre-election declines in the associated sectors. Moreover, this incentive depends on the competitiveness of the race and the policy differences between the major parties/candidates. These arguments are tested using new survey and housing market data from the United States. The survey analysis assesses whether respondents’ perceptions of presidential candidates’ policy differences increased the likelihood that they would delay certain purchases and actions. The housing market analysis examines whether elections are associated with a pre-election decline in economic activity, and whether any such decline depends on electoral competitiveness. The results support the predictions and cannot be explained by existing theories.

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