scholarly journals A Note on Federal Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates in the United States

1991 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Cebula
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Real Interest Rates

scholarly journals Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 113-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt G. Lunsford ◽  
Kenneth D. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Standard Theory ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Long Run

We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long-run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high savers who drive down real interest rates. In contrast to standard theory, we do not find productivity to be positively correlated with real rates. Most other variables have a mixed relationship with the real rate, with long-run correlations that are statistically or economically large in some samples and by some measures but not in others. (JEL E21, E22, E24, E43, E52)

A Note on Budget Deficits and Ex Ante Real Long Term Interest Rates in the United States

1990 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Cebula
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Ex Ante

MONETARY POLICY AND GOVERNMENT DEBT MANAGEMENT DURING THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 255 ◽  
pp. 79-84
Author(s):  
William A. Allen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The United Kingdom

This paper describes how the large budget deficits of 2020 in the United States and the United Kingdom were financed, how central banks are in practice managed not just short-term interest rates but also yields on government bonds, and how their ability to resist a post-coronavirus surge in inflation has been compromised.

Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States

1987 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Evans
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Budget Deficits

The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007-2010

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (84) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Rodriguez Waldo ◽  
Carlos I. Medeiros ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
The United States
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