Popular indicators of the crisis in financial markets

The article provides an overview of the factors that ensure the growth of the US stock market despite the fact that a number of popular indicators signal the opposite. The dynamics of indicators (Total Market Cap) / GDP, (Total Market Cap) / (GDP + Total Assets of Fed) and P/E, Shiller P/E ratios are presented. According to Buffett’s Total Market Cap / GDP indicator, the stock market is now “significantly overvalued” and the Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed the “Great Depression” period. At the same time, an increase in the amount of money in circulation as a result of the implementation of Quantitative easing (QE) programs of the FRS, inflation risk and a decrease in the profitability of investments in alternative assets (government and corporate bonds) are forcing investors to stay in stocks and continue to build up positions despite the increase risks and a decrease in potential profitability in the future. The growth of the US stock market is also stimulated by the buyback programs of companies and the inflow of foreign capital. In 2020, there was a V-shaped recovery in the economy, and an absolute record for the amount of funds raised was set in the IPO market. Thanks to financial incentives, the stock market will continue to grow even despite the pandemic and overvalued assets, but the notorious “black swan” may become the “trigger” for the start of the crisis in the financial markets.

How to Hedge Against Inflation Risk in Vietnam

Vietnam has experienced galloping inflation and faced serious dollarization since its reform. To effectively control its inflation for promoting price stability, it is necessary to find efficacious leading indicators and the hedging mechanism. Using monthly data over the period from January 1997 to June 2020, this study finds the predictive power and hedge effectiveness of both gold and the US dollar on inflation in the long-run and short-run within the asymmetric framework. Especially, the response of inflation to the shocks of gold price and the US dollar are quick and decisive, disclosing the sensitiveness of inflation to these two variables.

Optimal Investment Strategy for DC Pension Plan with Stochastic Income and Inflation Risk under the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model

This paper is concerned with the optimal investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. We assumed that the financial market consists of a risk-free asset and a risky asset, where the risky asset is subject to the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O-U) process, and stochastic income and inflation risk were also considered in the model. We firstly derived the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation through the stochastic control method. Secondly, under the logarithmic utility function, the closed-form solution of optimal asset allocation was obtained by using the Legendre transform method. Finally, we give several numerical examples and a financial analysis.

Inflation Risk?

Inflation is on the rise again in the industrialised world. This has led to fears of a sustained surge in inflation. This article argues that while such fears may make sense in the US, they do not in the eurozone, where the monetary-fiscal policy mix has been much less expansionary than in the US. The fear expressed by some that the monetary overhang from the large injections of liquidity through quantitative easing might lead to inflation in the eurozone does not stand up to scrutiny either. The conclusion offers some observations on the monetary operating procedures in the ECB. It argues that in the future, when interest rates rise again, the ECB risks transferring all (and even more) of its profits to the banking system. This article proposes a way to avoid this unacceptable outcome.