Nine out of the last ten recessions in the United States have been preceded by an increase in the price of oil as noted by Hamilton [Palgrave Dictionary of Economics]. Given the small share of energy in gross domestic product this phenomenon is difficult to explain using standard models. In this paper, I show that firm entry can be an important transmission and amplifying channel for energy price shocks. The results from the baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model predict a drop in output that is two times the impact in a model without entry. The model also predicts an increase in energy prices would lead to a decline in real wages, investment, consumption, and return on investment. Additionally, using US firm level data, I demonstrate that a rise in energy prices has a negative impact on firm entry as predicted by the DSGE model. This lends further support toward endogenizing firm entry when analyzing the effects of energy price shocks.
Energy Price Shocks and Financial Market Integration: Evidence from New Keynesian Model
