The effect of central bank credibility on forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model

This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance shocks in the US. We estimate a New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility and heterogeneous expectations using Bayesian methods and survey data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimated credibility of the Fed’s forward guidance announcements is relatively high, but anticipation effects are attenuated. Accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably as in the fully credible counterfactual. (2) The so-called “forward guidance puzzle” arises partly from the unrealistically large responses of macroeconomic variables to forward guidance under perfect credibility and homogeneous fully informed rational expectations, assumptions which are found to be jointly inconsistent with the observed US data. (3) Imperfect credibility provides a plausible explanation for the empirical evidence of forecasting error predictability based on forecasting disagreement found in the SPF data. Thus, we show that accounting for imperfect credibility and forecasting disagreements is important to understand the formation of expectations and the transmission mechanism of forward guidance.

What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. In a New Keynesian model with a lower bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in the “target equilibrium,” whereas policy is mostly constrained in the “liquidity trap equilibrium.” Using options data on interest rates and inflation, we find forecast densities consistent with the target equilibrium and find no evidence in favor of the liquidity trap equilibrium. The lower bound has a sizable effect on the distribution of interest rates, but its impact on inflation is relatively modest. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, G13)

The Four Equation New Keynesian Model

This paper develops a New Keynesian model featuring financial intermediation, short- and long-term bonds, credit shocks, and scope for unconventional monetary policy. The log-linearized model reduces to four equations – Phillips and IS curves as well as policy rules for the short-term interest rate and the central bank's long-bond portfolio (QE). Credit shocks and QE appear in both the IS and Phillips curves. In equilibrium, optimal monetary policy entails adjusting the short-term interest rate to offset natural rate shocks, but using QE to offset credit market disruptions. Use of QE significantly mitigates the costs of a binding zero lower bound.

Tight Money-Tight Credit: Coordination Failure in the Conduct of Monetary and Financial Policies

Violations of Tinbergen’s rule and strategic interaction undermine stabilization policies in a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator. Welfare costs of risk shocks are large because of efficiency losses and income effects of costly monitoring, but they are much larger under a simple Taylor rule (STR) or a Taylor rule augmented with credit spreads (ATR) than with a Taylor rule and a separate financial rule targeting spreads. ATR and STR are tight money-tight credit regimes responding too much (little) to inflation (spreads). The Nash equilibrium of monetary and financial policies is also tight money-tight credit but it dominates ATR and STR. (JEL E12, E31, E44, E43, E52, E63)