Data-driven dynamic risk analysis of offshore drilling operations

2018 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 444-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunday A. Adedigba ◽  
Olalere Oloruntobi ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Stephen Butt
2020 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 104326
Author(s):  
Bijay B ◽  
Priscilla George ◽  
V.R. Renjith ◽  
Anish Job Kurian

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Luiz Barbosa das Chagas ◽  
Celso Kazuyuki Morooka

Abstract Advances in subsea exploration in the oceans to discover new petroleum reservoirs and sometimes different kind of minerals at the seabed in ultra deepwater, continuously introduce new challenges in offshore drilling operations. This motivates the development of increasingly safe maritime operations. In offshore petroleum, a marine drilling riser is the pipe that connects a wellhead at the sea bottom to a drillship at the sea surface, as an access to the wellbore. It serves as a guide for the drilling column with the drill bit and conductor to carry cuttings of rock coming from the wellbore drilling and its construction. Drilling riser is constantly exposed to adversity from the environment, such as waves, sea currents and platform motions induced by waves. These elements of the environment are prevailing factors that can cause a riser failure during deepwater drilling operations with undesirable consequences for the environment. In the present work, key parameters that influence the probability of fatigue failure in a marine drilling riser are identified, and a parametric evaluation with those parameters are carried out. Dynamic behavior of a riser is previously calculated and fatigue damage is estimated. Afterwards, the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is applied to determine the probability of fatigue failure on the riser. Fundamentals of the procedure are described, and results are illustrated through the analysis for a typical riser in deepwater drilling operation. Parametric evaluations are done observing points considered as critical along the riser length, and looking to the sensitivity of key parameters in the process. For this study, the SN curve from API guidelines is applied and accumulated fatigue damage is estimated from simulations of the stress time series and applying the Palmgren-Miner’s rule. Finally, the influence of each parameter in the reliability of fatigue failure is verified and discussions given.


Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 685
Author(s):  
Usama Muhammad Niazi ◽  
Mohammad Shakir Nasif ◽  
Masdi Muhammad ◽  
Faisal Khan

The reliability of petroleum offshore platform systems affects human safety and well-being; hence, it should be considered in plant design and operation in order to determine its effect on human fatality risk. Methane Vapour Cloud Explosions (VCE) in offshore platforms are known to be one of the fatal potential accidents that can be attributed to failure in plant safety systems. Traditional Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) lacks in providing microlevel risk assessment studies and are unable to update risk with the passage of time. This study proposes a grid-based dynamic risk analysis framework for analysing the effect of VCEs on the risk of human fatality in an offshore platform. Flame Acceleration Simulator (FLACS), which is a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software, is used to model VCEs, taking into account different wind and leakage conditions. To estimate the dynamic risk, Bayesian Inference (BI) is utilised using Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) data. The proposed framework offers the advantage of facilitating microlevel risk analysis by utilising a grid-based approach and providing grid-by-grid risk mapping. Increasing the wind speed (from 3 to 7 m/s) resulted in maximum increase of 21% in risk values. Furthermore, the integration of BI with FLACS in the grid-based framework effectively estimates risk as a function of time and space; the dynamic risk analysis revealed up to 68% increase in human fatality risk recorded from year one to year five.


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