A stochastic simulation-optimization model for base-warranty and extended-warranty decision-making of under- and out-of-warranty products

2020 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 106772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Afsahi ◽  
Mahmood Shafiee
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Simulation Optimization ◽  
Extended Warranty

Bayesian Belief Networks for the metamodeling of simulation-optimization model to identify optimum water allocation scenario, Application in Miyandoab plain, Urmia Lake basin, Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhossein Dehghanipour ◽  
Gerrit Schoups ◽  
Hossein Babazadeh ◽  
Majid Ehtiat ◽  
Bagher Zahabiyoun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Simulation Optimization ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Environmental Water ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Decision Making Models ◽  
Validation Tests ◽  
Urmia Lake Basin

<p>In this study, decision-making models in uncertain conditions are developed to identify optimal strategies for reducing competition between agricultural and environmental water demand. The decision-making models are applied to the irrigated Miyandoab Plain, located upstream of endorheic Lake Urmia in Northwestern Iran. Decision-making models are conceptualized based on static and dynamic Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The static BBN evaluates the effects of management strategies and drought conditions on environmental flow and agricultural profit at the annual scale, while the dynamic BBN accounts for monthly dynamics of water demand and conjunctive use. The reliability and performance of BBNs depend on the quantity and quality of data used to train the BBN and create conditional probability tables (CPTs). In this study, simulated outputs from a multi-period simulation-optimization model (Dehganipour et al., 2020) are used to populate the CPTs in each BBN and reduce the BBN training error. Cross-validation tests and sensitivity analysis are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the resulting BBNs. Sensitivity analysis shows that drought conditions have the most significant impact on environmental flow compared to other variables. Cross-validation tests show that the BBNs are able to reproduce outputs of the complex simulation-optimization model used for training, and therefore provide a computationally fast alternative for decision-making under uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Reference:</strong> Dehghanipour, A. H., Schoups, G., Zahabiyoun, B., & Babazadeh, H. (2020). Meeting agricultural and environmental water demand in endorheic irrigated river basins: A simulation-optimization approach applied to the Urmia Lake basin in Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 241, 106353.</p>

A transient stochastic simulation–optimization model for operational fuel planning in-theater

2018 ◽  
Vol 264 (2) ◽  
pp. 637-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Lobo ◽  
Donald E. Brown ◽  
Matthew S. Gerber ◽  
Peter J. Grazaitis
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Simulation Optimization

Artikel Strategi tentang Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winda Safitri Caniago ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Selection Of

Decision making is an action with determine the result in solving problem with choose a rule action between alternative through a mental of process, logic of process and etc. This purpose article is to help make it easier to solve a problem. This article explain some strategy decision making such as optimization model, satisfying model, mixed scanning model, heuristic model, and last the selection of certain model.

Expected consistency-based model and multiplicative DEA cross-efficiency for group decision-making with incomplete distribution linguistic preference relations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Jinpei Liu ◽  
Longlong Shao ◽  
Ligang Zhou ◽  
Feifei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Preference Relation ◽  
Preference Relations ◽  
Priority Vector ◽  
Linguistic Preference Relation ◽  
Multiplicative Preference Relations ◽  
High Consistency

Faced with complex decision problems, Distribution linguistic preference relation (DLPR) is an effective way for decision-makers (DMs) to express preference information. However, due to the complexity of the decision-making environment, DMs may not be able to provide complete linguistic distribution for all linguistic terms in DLPRs, which results in incomplete DLPRs. Therefore, in order to solve group decision-making (GDM) with incomplete DLPRs, this paper proposes expected consistency-based model and multiplicative DEA cross-efficiency. For a given incomplete DLPRs, we first propose an optimization model to obtain complete DLPR. This optimization model can evaluate the missing linguistic distribution and ensure that the obtained DLPR has a high consistency level. And then, we develop a transformation function that can transform DLPRs into multiplicative preference relations (MPRs). Furthermore, we design an improved multiplicative DEA model to obtain the priority vector of MPR for ranking all alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is provided to show the rationality and applicability of the proposed GDM method.

scholarly journals Multiobjective Joint Optimization of Production Scheduling and Maintenance Planning in the Flexible Job-Shop Problem

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfei Ye ◽  
Huimin Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Preventive Maintenance ◽  
Production Scheduling ◽  
Job Shop ◽  
Joint Optimization ◽  
Planning Problem ◽  
Flexible Job Shop ◽  
Maintenance Planning ◽  
Joint Decision

In order to solve the joint optimization of production scheduling and maintenance planning problem in the flexible job-shop, a multiobjective joint optimization model considering the maximum completion time and maintenance costs per unit time is established based on the concept of flexible job-shop and preventive maintenance. A weighted sum method is adopted to eliminate the index dimension. In addition, a double-coded genetic algorithm is designed according to the problem characteristics. The best result under the circumstances of joint decision-making is obtained through multiple simulation experiments, which proves the validity of the algorithm. We can prove the superiority of joint optimization model by comparing the result of joint decision-making project with the result of independent decision-making project under fixed preventive maintenance period. This study will enrich and expand the theoretical framework and analytical methods of this problem; it provides a scientific decision analysis method for enterprise to make production plan and maintenance plan.

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