Stochastic Simulation of Production Processes – Selected Issues

The article presents selected issues in the field of stochastic simulation of production process-es. Attention was drawn to the possibilityof including, in this type of models, the risk accompanying the implementation of processes. Probability density functions that can beused to characterize random variables present in the model are presented. The possibility of making mistakes while creat-ing this typeof models was pointed out. Two selected examples of the use of stochastic simulation in the analysis of production processes on theexample of the mining process are presented.

Modeling of Gate Tunable Synaptic Device for Neuromorphic Applications

The emerging memories are great candidates to establish neuromorphic computing challenging non-Von Neumann architecture. Emerging non-volatile resistive random-access memory (RRAM) attracted abundant attention recently for its low power consumption and high storage density. Up to now, research regarding the tunability of the On/Off ratio and the switching window of RRAM devices remains scarce. In this work, the underlying mechanisms related to gate tunable RRAMs are investigated. The principle of such a device consists of controlling the filament evolution in the resistive layer using graphene and an electric field. A physics-based stochastic simulation was employed to reveal the mechanisms that link the filament size and the growth speed to the back-gate bias. The simulations demonstrate the influence of the negative gate voltage on the device current which in turn leads to better characteristics for neuromorphic computing applications. Moreover, a high accuracy (94.7%) neural network for handwritten character digit classification has been realized using the 1-transistor 1-memristor (1T1R) crossbar cell structure and our stochastic simulation method, which demonstrate the optimization of gate tunable synaptic device.

Numerical approaches for the rapid analysis of prophylactic efficacy against HIV with arbitrary drug-dosing schemes

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important pillar to prevent HIV transmission. Because of experimental and clinical shortcomings, mathematical models that integrate pharmacological, viral- and host factors are frequently used to quantify clinical efficacy of PrEP. Stochastic simulations of these models provides sample statistics from which the clinical efficacy is approximated. However, many stochastic simulations are needed to reduce the associated sampling error. To remedy the shortcomings of stochastic simulation, we developed a numerical method that allows predicting the efficacy of arbitrary prophylactic regimen directly from a viral dynamics model, without sampling. We apply the method to various hypothetical dolutegravir (DTG) prophylaxis scenarios. The approach is verified against state-of-the-art stochastic simulation. While the method is more accurate than stochastic simulation, it is superior in terms of computational performance. For example, a continuous 6-month prophylactic profile is computed within a few seconds on a laptop computer. The method’s computational performance, therefore, substantially expands the horizon of feasible analysis in the context of PrEP, and possibly other applications.

genomicSimulation: fast R functions for stochastic simulation of breeding programs

Simulation tools are key to designing and optimising breeding programs that are many-year, high-effort endeavours. Tools that operate on real genotypes and integrate easily with other analysis software are needed for users to integrate simulated data into their analysis and decision-making processes. This paper presents genomicSimulation, a fast and flexible tool for the stochastic simulation of crossing and selection on real genotypes. It is fully written in C for high execution speeds, has minimal dependencies, and is available as an R package for integration with R's broad range of analysis and visualisation tools. Comparisons of a simulated recreation of a breeding program to the real data shows that the tool's simulated offspring correctly show key population features. Both versions of genomicSimulation are freely available on GitHub: The R package version at https://github.com/vllrs/genomicSimulation/ and the C library version at https://github.com/vllrs/genomicSimulationC

Stochastic simulation and prediction of turbidity dynamics in karst systems. Case study: Mokra karst spring (SE Serbia)

Characterization of a karst system includes the analysis of two components – quantitative and qualitative one. Forecasting of future values of groundwater parameters can be very useful in defining the amounts of water needed for a reliable water supply. Stochastic simulation and forecasting were carried out for time series of precipitation and Mokra karst spring turbidity recorded in 2015. Simulation models within groundwater management would have a function in the early warning system which will enable timely response of groundwater source management.

Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for effective spreading dynamics on Time-evolving Adaptive NetworX (SSATAN-X)

Modelling and simulating the dynamics of pathogen spreading has been proven crucial to inform public heath decisions, containment strategies, as well as cost-effectiveness calculations. Pathogen spreading is often modelled as a stochastic process that is driven by pathogen exposure on time-evolving contact networks. In adaptive networks, the spreading process depends not only on the dynamics of a contact network, but vice versa, infection dynamics may alter risk behaviour and thus feed back onto contact dynamics, leading to emergent complex dynamics. However, stochastic simulation of pathogen spreading processes on adaptive networks is currently computationally prohibitive. In this manuscript, we propose SSATAN-X, a new algorithm for the accurate stochastic simulation of pathogen spreading on adaptive networks. The key idea of SSATAN-X is to only capture the contact dynamics that are relevant to the spreading process. We show that SSATAN-X captures the contact dynamics and consequently the spreading dynamics accurately. The algorithm achieves a > 10 fold speed-up over the state-of-art stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The speed-up with SSATAN-X further increases when the contact dynamics are fast in relation to the spreading process, i.e. if contacts are short-lived and per-exposure infection risks are small, as applicable to most infectious diseases. We envision that SSATAN-X may extend the scope of analysis of pathogen spreading on adaptive networks. Moreover, it may serve to create benchmark data sets to validate novel numerical approaches for simulation, or for the data-driven analysis of the spreading dynamics on adaptive networks. A C++ implementation of the algorithm is available https://github.com/nmalysheva/SSATAN-X

Risk Decision-Making Technology in Gas Reservoir Development at Sichuan Basin

During the development of complex gas reservoirs, the risk decision-making problem often emerges. Thus, the study on risk assessment is an important tool used to identify potential hazards and create appropriate avoidance measures accordingly. Based on the analysis of seven types of risk factors in gas reservoir development planning, this paper aims to clarify the logical relationship between the risk factors in the strategic planning of natural gas development. The comprehensive research on target risks in the gas reservoir development planning based on stochastic simulation was carried out. The “probability curve scanning method” was used to evaluate objective risk factors, while the decision-making risk factors were evaluated using the “probability curve displacement method.” According to the realization probability and dispersion degree of the planned target combined with the risk grade evaluation matrix, the planning target evaluation risk grade was implemented. Moreover, the planning unit risk grade evaluation was obtained at different stages. Regarding the specific production capacity conditions in gas wells (horizontal and vertical wells) and gas reservoir water invasion, the probability method with Monte Carlo stochastic simulation was used to calculate the production and water invasion volumes. The established decision-making risk technology for gas reservoir development, along with the associated supporting procedures, can be used to evaluate the risks of reservoir development planning, production, and water invasion.