Evolutionary-morphological learning machines for high-frequency financial time series prediction

Financial time-series prediction has been long and the most challenging issues in financial market analysis. The deep neural networks is one of the excellent data mining approach has received great attention by researchers in several areas of time-series prediction since last 10 years. “Convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) models have become the mainstream methods for financial predictions. In this paper, we proposed to combine architectures, which exploit the advantages of CNN and RNN simultaneously, for the prediction of trading signals. Our model is essentially presented to financial time series predicting signals through a CNN layer, and directly fed into a gated recurrent unit (GRU) layer to capture long-term signals dependencies. GRU model perform better in sequential learning tasks and solve the vanishing gradients and exploding issue in standard RNNs. We evaluate our model on three datasets for stock indexes of the Hang Seng Indexes (HSI), the Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX) and the S&P 500 Index range 2008 to 2016, and associate the GRU-CNN based approaches with the existing deep learning models. Experimental results present that the proposed GRU-CNN model obtained the best prediction accuracy 56.2% on HIS dataset, 56.1% on DAX dataset and 56.3% on S&P500 dataset respectively.

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Searching for histogram patterns in USD/ZAR foreign exchange financial time series

Corporate Ownership and Control ◽

10.22495/cocv6i4sip9 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 575-584

Author(s):

JH Van Rooyen

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

High Frequency ◽

Financial Risk ◽

Pattern Analysis ◽

Financial Time Series ◽

Rate Data ◽

Data Set ◽

Frequency Distributions ◽

Financial Time

This study aims to investigate whether the phenomena found by Shnoll et al. when applying histogram pattern analysis techniques to stochastic processes from chemistry and physics are also present in financial time series, particularly exchange rate data. The phenomena are related to fine structure of non-smoothed frequency distributions drawn from tick high frequency currency exchange rates over a period of one week. Shnoll et al. use the notion of macroscopic fluctuations (MF) to explain the behaviour of sequences of histograms. Histogram patterns in time adhere to several laws that could not be detected when using time series analysis methods. In this study, which is a follow up of research by Van ZylBulitta, VH, Otte, R and Van Rooyen, JH, special emphasis is placed on the histogram pattern analysis of high frequency exchange rate data set. Following previous studies of the Shnoll phenomena from other fields, different steps of the histogram sequence analysis are carried out to determine whether the findings of Shnoll et al. could also be applied to financial market data. The findings presented here widen the understanding of time varying volatility and can aid in financial risk measurement and management. Outcomes of the study include an investigation of time series characteristics, more specifically the formation of discrete states and the repetition of histogram patterns

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