Parameter identifiability analysis and model fitting of a biological wastewater model

Author(s):  
Qian Chai ◽  
Sverre H. Amrani ◽  
Bernt Lie
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Pieschner ◽  
Jan Hasenauer ◽  
Christiane Fuchs

Mechanistic models are a powerful tool to gain insights into biological processes. The parameters of such models, e.g. kinetic rate constants, usually cannot be measured directly but need to be inferred from experimental data. In this article, we study dynamical models of the translation kinetics after mRNA transfection and analyze their parameter identifiability. Previous studies have considered ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of the process, and here we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. For both model types, we consider structural identifiability based on the model equations and practical identifiability based on simulated as well as experimental data and find that the SDE model provides better parameter identifiability than the ODE model. Moreover, our analysis shows that even for those parameters of the ODE model that are considered to be identifiable, the obtained estimates are sometimes unreliable. Overall, our study clearly demonstrates the relevance of considering different modeling approaches and that stochastic models can provide more reliable and informative results.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander P Browning ◽  
David J Warne ◽  
Kevin Burrage ◽  
Ruth E Baker ◽  
Matthew J Simpson

AbstractMathematical models are routinely calibrated to experimental data, with goals ranging from building predictive models to quantifying parameters that cannot be measured. Whether or not reliable parameter estimates are obtainable from the available data can easily be overlooked. Such issues of parameter identifiability have important ramifications for both the predictive power of a model, and the mechanistic insight that can be obtained. Identifiability analysis is well-established for deterministic, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, but there are no commonly-adopted methods for analysing identifiability in stochastic models. We provide an accessible introduction to identifiability analysis and demonstrate how existing ideas for analysis of ODE models can be applied to stochastic differential equation (SDE) models through four practical case studies. To assess structural identifiability, we study ODEs that describe the statistical moments of the stochastic process using open-source software tools. Using practically-motivated synthetic data and Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, we assess parameter identifiability in the context of available data. Our analysis shows that SDE models can often extract more information about parameters than deterministic descriptions. All code used to perform the analysis is available on Github.


Author(s):  
Mahsa Doosthosseini ◽  
Hosam Fathy

Abstract This article analyzes the combined parameter and state identifiability for a model of a cancerous tumor's growth dynamics. The model describes the impact of drug administration on the growth of two populations of cancer cells: a drug-sensitive population and a drug-resistant population. The model's dynamic behavior depends on the underlying values of its state variables and parameters, including the initial sizes and growth rates of the drug sensitive and drug-resistant populations, respectively. The article's primary goal is to use Fisher identifiability analysis to derive and analyze the Cram´er-Rao theoretical bounds on the best-achievable accuracy with which this estimation can be performed locally. This extends previous work by the authors, which focused solely on state estimation accuracy. This analysis highlights two key scenarios where estimation accuracy is particularly poor. First, a critical drug administration rate exists where the model's state observability is lost, thereby making the independent estimation of the drug-sensitive and drug-resistant population sizes impossible. Second, a different critical drug administration rate exists that brings the overall growth rate of the drug-sensitive population to zero, thereby worsening model parameter identifiability.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 1440-1448 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Raue ◽  
J. Karlsson ◽  
M. P. Saccomani ◽  
M. Jirstrand ◽  
J. Timmer

Author(s):  
Aaron Kandel ◽  
Mohamed Wahba ◽  
Hosam Fathy

Abstract This paper investigates the theoretical Cram´er-Rao bounds on estimation accuracy of longitudinal vehicle dynamics parameters. This analysis is motivated by the value of parameter estimation in various applications, including chassis model validation and active safety. Relevant literature addresses this demand through algorithms capable of estimating chassis parameters for diverse conditions. While the implementation of such algorithms has been studied, the question of fundamental limits on their accuracy remains largely unexplored. We address this question by presenting two contributions. First, this paper presents theoretical findings which reveal the prevailing effects underpinning vehicle chassis parameter identifiability. We then validate these findings with data from on-road experiments. Our results demonstrate, among a variety of effects, the strong relevance of road grade variability in determining parameter identifiability from a drive cycle. These findings can motivate improved experimental designs in the future.


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