We propose a two-dimensional model of three-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard
convection in the limit of very high Prandtl number and Rayleigh number, as in the
Earth's mantle. The model equation describes the evolution of the first moment of
the temperature anomaly in the thermal boundary layer, which is assumed thin with
respect to the scale of motion. This two-dimensional field is transported by the velocity
that it induces and is amplified by surface divergence. This model explains the
emergence of thermal plumes, which arise as finite-time singularities. We determine
critical exponents for these singularities. Using a smoothing method we go beyond
the singularity and reach a stage of developed convection. We describe a process of
plume merging, leaving room for the birth of new instabilities. The heat flow at the
surface predicted by our two-dimensional model is found to be in good agreement
with available data.