scholarly journals A new urn model

2005 ◽  
Vol 42 (04) ◽  
pp. 964-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
May-Ru Chen ◽  
Ching-Zong Wei

In this paper, we propose a new urn model. A single urn contains b black balls and w white balls. For each observation, we randomly draw m balls and note their colors, say k black balls and m − k white balls. We return the drawn balls to the urn with an additional ck black balls and c(m − k) white balls. We repeat this procedure n times and denote by X n the fraction of black balls after the nth draw. To investigate the asymptotic properties of X n , we first perform some computational studies. We then show that {X n } forms a martingale, which converges almost surely to a random variable X. The distribution of X is then shown to be absolutely continuous.

2005 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 964-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
May-Ru Chen ◽  
Ching-Zong Wei

In this paper, we propose a new urn model. A single urn contains b black balls and w white balls. For each observation, we randomly draw m balls and note their colors, say k black balls and m − k white balls. We return the drawn balls to the urn with an additional ck black balls and c(m − k) white balls. We repeat this procedure n times and denote by Xn the fraction of black balls after the nth draw. To investigate the asymptotic properties of Xn, we first perform some computational studies. We then show that {Xn} forms a martingale, which converges almost surely to a random variable X. The distribution of X is then shown to be absolutely continuous.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483
Author(s):  
May-Ru Chen

In this paper, we consider a generalized Pólya urn model with multiple drawings and time-dependent reinforcements. Suppose an urn initially contains w white and r red balls. At the nth action, m balls are drawn at random from the urn, say k white and m−k red balls, and then replaced in the urn along with cnk white and cn(m − k) red balls, where {cn} is a given sequence of positive integers. Repeat the above procedure ad infinitum. Let Xn be the proportion of the white balls in the urn after the nth action. We first show that Xn converges almost surely to a random variable X. Next, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for X to have a Bernoulli distribution with parameter w/(w + r). Finally, we prove that X is absolutely continuous if {cn} is bounded.


2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-346
Author(s):  
Mackenzie Simper

AbstractConsider an urn containing balls labeled with integer values. Define a discrete-time random process by drawing two balls, one at a time and with replacement, and noting the labels. Add a new ball labeled with the sum of the two drawn labels. This model was introduced by Siegmund and Yakir (2005) Ann. Prob.33, 2036 for labels taking values in a finite group, in which case the distribution defined by the urn converges to the uniform distribution on the group. For the urn of integers, the main result of this paper is an exponential limit law. The mean of the exponential is a random variable with distribution depending on the starting configuration. This is a novel urn model which combines multi-drawing and an infinite type of balls. The proof of convergence uses the contraction method for recursive distributional equations.


2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mykola Pratsiovytyi ◽  
Iryna Lysenko ◽  
Oksana Voitovska

Abstract Let X be a random variable with independent ternary digits and let {y=F(x)} be a classic singular Cantor function. For the distribution of the random variable {Y=F(X)} , the Lebesgue structure (i.e., the content of discrete, absolutely continuous and singular components), the structure of its point and the continuous spectra are exhaustively studied.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Brahima Soro ◽  
Ouagnina Hili ◽  
Sophie Dabo- Niang

We present general results of consistency and normality of a real-valued longitudinal random variable. We suppose that this random variable is some formed weighted averages of alpha-mixing data. The results can be applied to within-subject covariance function.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 2845
Author(s):  
Sandra Fortini ◽  
Sonia Petrone ◽  
Hristo Sariev

Measure-valued Pólya urn processes (MVPP) are Markov chains with an additive structure that serve as an extension of the generalized k-color Pólya urn model towards a continuum of possible colors. We prove that, for any MVPP (μn)n≥0 on a Polish space X, the normalized sequence (μn/μn(X))n≥0 agrees with the marginal predictive distributions of some random process (Xn)n≥1. Moreover, μn=μn−1+RXn, n≥1, where x↦Rx is a random transition kernel on X; thus, if μn−1 represents the contents of an urn, then Xn denotes the color of the ball drawn with distribution μn−1/μn−1(X) and RXn—the subsequent reinforcement. In the case RXn=WnδXn, for some non-negative random weights W1,W2,…, the process (Xn)n≥1 is better understood as a randomly reinforced extension of Blackwell and MacQueen’s Pólya sequence. We study the asymptotic properties of the predictive distributions and the empirical frequencies of (Xn)n≥1 under different assumptions on the weights. We also investigate a generalization of the above models via a randomization of the law of the reinforcement.


1972 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
pp. 457-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ahsanullah ◽  
M. Rahman

A necessary and sufficient condition based on order statistics that a positive random variable having an absolutely continuous probability distribution (with respect to Lebesgue measure) will be exponential is given.


2003 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 893-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Hörfelt

Suppose that {Xs, 0 ≤ s ≤ T} is an m-dimensional geometric Brownian motion with drift, μ is a bounded positive Borel measure on [0,T], and ϕ : ℝm → [0,∞) is a (weighted) lq(ℝm)-norm, 1 ≤ q ≤ ∞. The purpose of this paper is to study the distribution and the moments of the random variable Y given by the Lp(μ)-norm, 1 ≤ p ≤ ∞, of the function s ↦ ϕ(Xs), 0 ≤ s ≤ T. By using various geometric inequalities in Wiener space, this paper gives upper and lower bounds for the distribution function of Y and proves that the distribution function is log-concave and absolutely continuous on every open subset of the distribution's support. Moreover, the paper derives tail probabilities, presents sharp moment inequalities, and shows that Y is indetermined by its moments. The paper will also discuss the so-called moment-matching method for the pricing of Asian-styled basket options.


1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-138
Author(s):  
M. P. Quine ◽  
W. Szczotka

We define a stochastic process {Xn} based on partial sums of a sequence of integer-valued random variables (K0,K1,…). The process can be represented as an urn model, which is a natural generalization of a gambling model used in the first published exposition of the criticality theorem of the classical branching process. A special case of the process is also of interest in the context of a self-annihilating branching process. Our main result is that when (K1,K2,…) are independent and identically distributed, with mean a ∊ (1,∞), there exist constants {cn} with cn+1/cn → a as n → ∞ such that Xn/cn converges almost surely to a finite random variable which is positive on the event {Xn ↛ 0}. The result is extended to the case of exchangeable summands.


1974 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. R. R. Uppuluri ◽  
W. J. Blot

A discrete random variable describing the number of comparisons made in a sequence of comparisons between two opponents which terminates as soon as one opponent wins m comparisons is studied. By equating two different expressions for the mean of the variable, a closed form for the incomplete beta function with equal arguments is obtained. This expression is used in deriving asymptotic (m-large) expressions for the mean and variance. The standardized variate is shown to converge to the Gaussian distribution as m→ ∞. A result corresponding to the DeMoivre-Laplace limit theorem is proved. Finally applications are made to the genetic code problem, to Banach's Match Box Problem, and to the World Series of baseball.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document