Predicting Seasonal Performance in Professional Sport: A 30-Year Analysis of Sports Illustrated Predictions

In 2017, Sports Illustrated (SI) made headlines when their remarkable prediction from 2014 that the Houston Astros (a team in one of the lowest Major League Baseball divisional rankings) would win the World Series, came true. The less-publicised story was that in 2017, SI predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the Major League Baseball (MLB) title. Assessing the forecasting accuracy of experts is critical as it explores the difficulty and limitations of forecasts and can help illuminate how predictions may shape sociocultural notions of sport in society. To thoroughly investigate SI’s forecasting record, predictions were collected from the four major North American sporting leagues (the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and National Hockey League) over the last 30 years (1988–2018). Kruskal–Wallis H Tests and Mann–Whitney U Tests were used to evaluate the absolute and relative accuracy of predictions. Results indicated that SI had the greatest predictive accuracy in the National Basketball Association and was significantly more likely to predict divisional winners compared to conference and league champions. Future work in this area may seek to examine multiple media outlets to gain a more comprehensive perspective on forecasting accuracy in sport.

Biomarkers of Trifluridine-Tipiracil Efficacy

Trifluridine/tipiracil (TAS-102) is a newer generation chemotherapy that has been approved for the later-line treatment of metastatic colorectal and gastric/gastroesophageal adenocarcinomas. The oral drug provides a modest benefit of prolongation of survival over placebo in pretreated patients with these cancers with acceptable toxicity. Studies have shown rare objective responses (2–4%), and the disease control rates were 44% in both colorectal and gastric cancer randomized trials. Thus, the majority of patients progress through treatment and are burdened by toxicities. To better characterize the sub-group of patients with a higher probability of benefit from trifluridine/tipiracil, predictive biomarkers have been sought using data from randomized trials as well as from non-randomized trials and real-world series. Biomarkers examined include clinical characteristics of the patients, laboratory tests, and tumor derived biomarkers. These studies show that early neutropenia on treatment, and ratios of leukocyte subsets, are potential biomarkers able to predict trifluridine/tipiracil benefit. Combinations of laboratory values and clinical characteristics and proteins involved in trifluridine transport and activation have been examined with initial positive results.

All genera of the world: an introduction to the inventory

The ’All genera of the world’ series was announced by Zhang (2020) when Megataxa was launched. It aims to publish a full list of all genera (living and fossil) in a current consensus classification, including species richness, type species, and synonyms/homonyms (if any) for each genus. Original references for the generic names, type species, and nomenclatural changes should be checked and listed. This series, when completed, will provide a basis for a full inventory of life on Earth. It is an extension of a previous series of papers to the family level for animal diversity (Zhang 2011, 2013). The series invites individual taxonomists or a large team to submit small articles or large monographs for their taxa.

The Travel Demands of an Elite Rugby Sevens Team: Effects on Objective and Subjective Sleep Parameters

Purpose: To explore the effects of travel related to international rugby sevens competition on sleep patterns. Methods: A total of 17 international male rugby sevens players participated in this study. Actigraphic and subjective sleep assessments were performed daily during 2 separate Sevens World Series competition legs (Oceania and America). The duration of each competition leg was subdivided into key periods (pretour, precompetition, tournament 1, relocation, tournament 2, and posttour) lasting 2 to 7 nights. Linear mixed models in combination with magnitude-based decisions were used to assess (1) the difference between preseason and key periods and (2) the effect of travel direction (eastward or westward). Results: Shorter total sleep time (hours:minutes) was observed during tournament 2 (mean [SD], 06:16 [01:08]), relocation (06:09 [01:09]), and the pretour week (06:34 [01:24]) compared with the preseason (06:52 [01:00]). Worse sleep quality (arbitrary units) was observed during tournament 1 (6.1 [2.0]) and 2 (5.7 [1.2]), as well as during the relocation week (6.3 [1.5]) than during the preseason (6.5 [1.8]). When traveling eastward compared with westward, earlier fall-asleep time was observed during tournament 1 (ES − 0.57; 90% CI, −1.12 to −0.01), the relocation week (−0.70 [−1.11 to −0.28]), and the posttour (−0.57 [−0.95 to −0.18]). However, possibly trivial and unclear differences were observed during the precompetition week (0.15 [−0.15 to 0.45]) and tournament 2 (0.81 [−0.29 to 1.91]). Conclusion: The sleep patterns of elite rugby sevens players are robust to the effects of long-haul travel and jet lag. However, the staff should consider promoting sleep during the tournament and relocation week.

Principal component analysis identifies different representative match load profiles in international women’s field hockey based on playing positions. [El análisis de componentes principales identifica diferentes perfiles de rendimiento en función de las posiciones en partidos internacionales de hockey hierba femenino].

The aim of this study was to assess the principal components (PC) of women’s field hockey players´ TL distinguishing by playing positions (i.e., back, midfielder, forward). Data were collected from sixteen players belonging to the Spanish National women’s field hockey team during 13 official matches from the European Championship, World Series, and Pre-Olympic tournament. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) grouped a total of 16 variables in five to six PC, explaining between 68.6 and 80% of the total variance. Different variables formed the PC that explain the player’s performance in different field positions. There were differences by positions in the distance covered at 21 to 24 km·h-1 (midfielders>forwards), decelerations from 5 to 4 m·s-2 (midfielders>forwards), and in maximum accelerations (midfielders>backs). Overall, strength and conditioning coaches should combine exercises which induce a high degree of aerobic endurance and power. However, some specification should be made by playing position: (1) defenders should perform training sessions with at least the same amount of volume as in the matches; (2) forwards should perform training efforts that ensure high repeated sprint ability; and (3) midfielders should perform a high training volume to develop high-intensity aerobic endurance, in combination with short-term efforts.

Case Study: Comparison of Swimsuits and Wetsuits Through Biomechanics and Energetics in Elite Female Open Water Swimmers

Aim: The authors investigated how the Arena Powerskin R-EVO Closed Back swimsuit and Arena Carbon Triwetsuit (full-sleeve wetsuit), both approved by the Fédération Internationale de Natation (FINA) regulations, affect biomechanics and energetics of 3 elite female open water (OW) swimmers at maximal and 4 submaximal swimming intensities. Methods: Three elite female OW swimmers (OW1 = 24 y, 1.64 m, 60 kg; OW2 = 23 y, 1.69 m, 65 kg; OW3 = 27 y, 1.63 m, 64.5 kg) were tested 1 week prior to a FINA/CNSG (China National Sports Group) Marathon Swim World Series event and 40 days before the 18th FINA World Championships 2019. Each OW swimmer completed 2 identical testing sessions, one with a swimsuit and other with a wetsuit, involving shoulder flexion power output assessed from medicine-ball throw, maximal performance and drag coefficient assessment, and an incremental intermittent swim test at 4 different relative intensities. Results: Estimated peak oxygen uptake was 4.4 L·min−1 for OW1, 5.6 L·min−1 for OW2, and 5.0 L·min−1 for OW3. Despite a distinct behavior observed on index of coordination for OW3, a null index of synchronization, increased stroke rate (mean difference = 2%–8%), reduced drag factor (minimum = −14%; maximum = −30%), lower energy cost (mean difference = −2% to −6%), and faster performance (mean difference = 2% to 3%) were observed with the wetsuit compared with swimsuit for all elite OW swimmers. Conclusion: The wetsuit enhances submaximal swimming performance, and this increase is dependent on the OW swimmer’s characteristics. The higher stroke rate and lower stroke length detected with wetsuit could be related to movement constraints imposed by the suit.