A Projection Method for the Estimation of Error Covariance Matrices for Variational Data Assimilation in Ocean Modelling

Data assimilation methods are an invaluable tool for operational ocean models. These methods are often based on a variational approach and require the knowledge of the spatial covariances of the background errors (differences between the numerical model and the true values) and the observation errors (differences between true and measured values). Since the true values are never known in practice, the error covariance matrices containing values of the covariance functions at different locations, are estimated approximately. Several methods have been devised to compute these matrices, one of the most widely used is the one developed by Hollingsworth and Lönnberg (H-L). This method requires to bin (combine) the data points separated by similar distances, compute covariances in each bin and then to find a best fit covariance function. While being a helpful tool, the H-L method has its limitations. We have developed a new mathematical method for computing the background and observation error covariance functions and therefore the error covariance matrices. The method uses functional analysis which allows to overcome some shortcomings of the H-L method, for example, the assumption of statistical isotropy. It also eliminates the intermediate steps used in the H-L method such as binning the innovations (differences between observations and the model), and the computation of innovation covariances for each bin, before the best-fit curve can be found. We show that the new method works in situations where the standard H-L method experiences difficulties, especially when observations are scarce. It gives a better estimate than the H-L in a synthetic idealised case where the true covariance function is known. We also demonstrate that in many cases the new method allows to use the separable convolution mathematical algorithm to increase the computational speed significantly, up to an order of magnitude. The Projection Method (PROM) also allows computing 2D and 3D covariance functions in addition to the standard 1D case.

Stochastic model of the gearbox pair vibration

The model of vibration signal of gearbox pair in the form of periodically correlated non-stationary random process is considered. It is shown that hidden periodicities in biperiodic correlated random process mean and covariance function, characterizing the vibrations of gearbox pair can be detected using the component and least square methods. Seven particular cases of the bi-rhythmic hidden periodicity for different modulation modes are analyzed.

APPLICATION OF CYCLOSTATIONARY PROPERTIES OF PERIODIC SIGNALS FOR POWER ANALYSIS IN ELECTRIC CIRCUITS

Предложен циклостационарный подход к анализу мощности электрических цепей, возбуждаемых источниками периодических токов и напряжений. Получены теоретические выражения для характеристик мгновенной мощности на основе взаимной спектральной ковариационной функции и показана их связь со средней и полной мощностью. Проведен анализ гармонического распределения мощности в линейной цепи при периодическом воздействии. На примере численного расчета резонансной цепи продемонстрированы этапы циклостационарного анализа и получены основные характеристики мощности. The paper proposes a cyclostationary approach to the power analysis for electric circuits excited by sources of periodic currentsorvoltages.Theformalexpressions forcharacteristics of instantaneous power are obtained on the basis of cross spectral covariance function and their relation to the average and apparent power is established. The analysis of the harmonic distribution of the power in a linear circuit under periodic excitation is carried out. The main stages of the method are illustrated with a numerical simulation example.

Discussion on Competition for Spatial Statistics for Large Datasets

We discuss the experiences and results of the AppStatUZH team’s participation in the comprehensive and unbiased comparison of different spatial approximations conducted in the Competition for Spatial Statistics for Large Datasets. In each of the different sub-competitions, we estimated parameters of the covariance model based on a likelihood function and predicted missing observations with simple kriging. We approximated the covariance model either with covariance tapering or a compactly supported Wendland covariance function.

On the Family of Covariance Functions Based on ARMA Models

In time series analyses, covariance modeling is an essential part of stochastic methods such as prediction or filtering. For practical use, general families of covariance functions with large flexibilities are necessary to model complex correlations structures such as negative correlations. Thus, families of covariance functions should be as versatile as possible by including a high variety of basis functions. Another drawback of some common covariance models is that they can be parameterized in a way such that they do not allow all parameters to vary. In this work, we elaborate on the affiliation of several established covariance functions such as exponential, Matérn-type, and damped oscillating functions to the general class of covariance functions defined by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. Furthermore, we present advanced limit cases that also belong to this class and enable a higher variability of the shape parameters and, consequently, the representable covariance functions. For prediction tasks in applications with spatial data, the covariance function must be positive semi-definite in the respective domain. We provide conditions for the shape parameters that need to be fulfilled for positive semi-definiteness of the covariance function in higher input dimensions.

A Mathematical Investigation of a Continuous Covariance Function Fitting with Discrete Covariances of an AR Process

In this paper, we want to find a continuous function fitting through the discrete covariance sequence generated by a stationary AR process. This function can be determined as soon as the Yule–Walker equations are found. The procedure consists of two steps. At first the inverse zeros of the characteristic polynomial of the AR process must be fixed. The second step is based on the fact that an AR process can also be seen as a difference equation. By solving this difference equation, it is possible to determine a class of functions from which a candidate for a continuous covariance function can be determined. To analyze if this function is applicable as a positive definite covariance function, it is analyzed mathematically in view of the power spectral density compared to the characteristics of the power spectral density for the discrete covariances. Then it is shown that this function is positive semi-definite. At the end, a simulation of a stationary AR(3) process is elaborated to illustrate the derived properties.