Abstract
A coupled mixed layer–atmospheric general circulation model has been used to evaluate the impact of ocean thermocline temperatures (and by proxy those of the deep ocean) on the surface climate of the earth. Particular attention has been devoted to temperature regimes both warmer and cooler than at present. The mixed layer ocean model (MLOM) simulates vertical dynamics and thermodynamics in the upper ocean, including wind mixing and buoyancy effects, and has been coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Simulations were made with globally uniform thermocline warmings of +2°, +5°, and +10°C, as well as a globally uniform cooling of −5°C. A simulation was made with latitudinally varying changes in thermocline temperature such that the warming at mid- and high latitudes is much larger than at low latitudes. In all simulations, the response of surface temperature over both land and ocean was larger than that expected just as a result of the imposed thermocline temperature change, largely because of water vapor feedbacks. In this respect, the simulations were similar to those in which only changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were imposed. In fact, when carbon dioxide was explicitly changed along with thermocline temperatures, the results were not much different than if only the thermocline temperatures were altered. Land versus ocean differences are explained largely by latent heat flux differences: the ocean is an infinite evaporative source, while land can be quite dry. The latitudinally varying case has a much larger response at mid- to high latitudes than at low latitudes; the high latitudes actually appear to effectively warm the low latitudes. Simulations exploring scenarios of glacial inception suggest that the deep ocean alone is not likely to be a key trigger but must operate in conjunction with other forcings, such as reduced carbon dioxide. Moist upland regions at mid- and high latitudes, and land regions adjacent to perennial sea ice, are the preferred locations for glacial inception in these runs. Finally, the model combination equilibrates very rapidly, meaning that a large number of simulations can be made for a fairly modest computational cost. A drawback to this is greatly reduced sensitivity to parameters such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which requires a full response of the ocean. Thus, this approach can be considered intermediate between fixing, or prescribing, sea surface temperatures and a fully coupled modeling approach.
On the detection of COVID‐driven changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
