Mapping Extreme Rainfall Statistics for Canada under Climate Change Using Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

2017 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
pp. 04016078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slobodan P. Simonovic ◽  
Andre Schardong ◽  
Dan Sandink
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Statistics ◽  
Frequency Curves

scholarly journals Application of a Disaggregation Method for the Generation of Climate Changed Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Predicting Future Extreme Rainfall Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure

2019 ◽  
Vol 271 ◽  
pp. 04002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Do Lago ◽  
Eduardo Mendiondo ◽  
Francisco Olivera ◽  
Marcio Giocomoni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Frequency Curves

Potential consequences of climate change are the increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall storm events. In order to assess what are the potential impacts of climate change in the transportation infrastructure, new intensity-duration-frequency curves are needed. In this study, projected IDF curves were created based on three Global Climate Models (GCM) for the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selected GCMs are: ACCESS1-0, CSIRO-MK3-0-6 and GFDL-ESM2M. Projected IDFs for the near (2025-2049), mid (2050-2074) and far future (2075-2099) were created after disaggregating the project rainfall time series using the Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulses Stochastic Model. The projected IDFs were compared with the IDF currently used and generated based on historical data. The results indicate that climate change is likely to decrease rainfall intensities in all the future horizons in the tested area of San Antonio, Texas. Further analysis is recommended, including the use of bias correction of those GCM models and use of a broader range of models that can better quantify uncertainty of the future rainfall regime.

scholarly journals Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 147-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. S. M. Herath ◽  
P. R. Sarukkalige ◽  
V. T. V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Correction Function ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Time Regime ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Spatial Downscaling

Abstract. Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner. Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches. As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the context of climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document