Chapter 13. The value of facework in crisis negotiation

AbstractThe Moscow theater hostage crisis was a spectacular media event, which sparked a wide domestic and international debate concerning the appropriateness of the Russian response. This article attempts to reconstruct and assess the events that took place in terms of negotiability of the incident, and seeks to provide an analytical perspective on the possible alternatives that were available to the Russian authorities throughout the crisis. Part I provides a brief overview of the events that unfolded. This section of the article also places Chechen motivations behind the incident into perspective with regard to past Chechen operations and to their overall strategy. Part II focuses on the details of the attack itself, particularly the Russian response. Special attention is devoted to analyzing the successes and failures of both the negotiations and the tactical assault. The conclusion discusses the implications of the Moscow theater incident for the future, including its potential impact on the likelihood of success of crisis negotiation strategies and the future tactics of the Chechen rebels.

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Searching for an Exit: The Effects of Context, Process and Structure on Crisis Negotiation

International Negotiation ◽

10.1163/15718069-24031184 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 371-406

Author(s):

Michael J. Butler

Keyword(s):

Foreign Policy ◽

Conflict Management ◽

Empirical Analysis ◽

International Crises ◽

High Stakes ◽

Crisis Negotiation ◽

Foreign Policy Crises ◽

Crisis Situations

Abstract By virtue of their defining criteria, international crises would seem unlikely candidates for conflict management and resolution. However, negotiations among crisis protagonists are not uncommon. Such behavior may reflect a desire to ‘exit’ the crisis dynamic. This article takes up the question of when and in what circumstances actors engaged in crisis situations turn to negotiation. Through an empirical analysis of over 1000 cases of foreign policy crises occurring between 1918 and 2015, this research examines a set of potential contextual, processual and structural correlates of crisis negotiation. The results of this analysis indicate that negotiation is less likely to occur in complex, high stakes, and especially violent crises, suggesting that negotiation is an unlikely and perhaps ill-suited response to more intense and severe crises.

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