Importance Sampling for Reliability Evaluation With Stochastic Simulation Models

Technometrics ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngjun Choe ◽  
Eunshin Byon ◽  
Nan Chen
Author(s):  
Zhu Yu ◽  
Wang Yinhao ◽  
He Yizhuo ◽  
Wu Dayong ◽  
Wang Tianhao

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-98
Author(s):  
Aušra Klimavičienė

The article examines the problem of determining asset allocation to sustainable retirement portfolio. The article attempts to apply heuristic method – 100 minus age in stocks rule – to determine asset allocation to sustainable retirement portfolio. Using dynamic stochastic simulation and stochastic optimization techniques the optimization of heuristic method rule is presented and the optimal alternative to „100“ is found. Seeking to reflect the stochastic nature of stock and bond returns and the human lifespan, the dynamic stochastic simulation models incorporate both the stochastic returns and the probability of living another year based on Lithuania‘s population mortality tables. The article presents the new method – adjusted heuristic method – to be used to determine asset allocation to retirement portfolio and highlights its advantages.


Author(s):  
Li Gang ◽  
Wang Yinhao ◽  
He Yizhuo ◽  
Zhu Yu ◽  
Wang Tianhao

Author(s):  
K. Pugazhendhi ◽  
A. K. Dhingra

In recent years quasi Monte-Carlo (QMC) techniques are gaining more popularity for reliability evaluation because of their increased accuracy over traditional Monte-Carlo simulation. A QMC technique like Low Discrepancy Sequence (LDS) combined with importance sampling is shown to be more accurate and robust in the past for the evaluation of structural reliability. However, one of the challenges in using importance sampling techniques to evaluate the structural reliability is to identify the optimum sampling density. In this article, a novel technique based on a combination of cross entropy and low discrepancy sampling methods is used for the evaluation of structural reliability. The proposed technique does not require an apriori knowledge of Most Probable Point of failure (MPP), and succeeds in adaptively identifying the optimum sampling density for the structural reliability evaluation. Several benchmark examples verify that the proposed method is as accurate as the quasi Monte-Carlo technique using low discrepancy sequence with the added advantage of being able to accomplish this without a knowledge of the MPP.


1998 ◽  
Vol 109 (2) ◽  
pp. 815-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Feigl ◽  
Hans Christian Öttinger

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