The fracture probability of a boiling water reactor pressure vessel for a domestic nuclear power plant in Taiwan has been numerically analyzed using an advanced version of ORNL’s FAVOR code. First, a model of the vessel beltline region, which includes all shell welds and plates, is built for the FAVOR code based on the plant specific parameters of the reactor pressure vessel. Then, a novel flaw model which describes the flaw types of surface breaking flaws, embedded weld flaws and embedded plate flaws are simulated along both inner and outer vessel walls. When conducting the fracture probability analyses, a transient low temperature over-pressure event, which has previously been shown to be the most severe challenge to the integrity of boiling water reactor pressure vessels, is considered as the loading condition. It is found that the fracture occurs in the fusion-line area of axial welds, but with only an insignificant failure probability. The low through-wall cracking frequency indicates that the analyzed reactor pressure vessel maintains sufficient stability until either the end-of-license or for doubling of the present license of operation.