Consistency Checking of the IEC 61508 PFH Formulas and New Formulas Proposal Based on the Markovian Approach

Safety Instrumented Systems (SISs) are of prime importance in protecting people, assets and environment from hazardous events. Therefore, it is important to be able to assess accurately their performance indicators. For this end, IEC 61508 standard has provided two reliability metrics: the average failure probability of a SIS lowly demanded (PFDavg) and the average failure frequency of a SIS highly or continuously demanded (PFH). The aim of this paper is to investigate the IEC 61508 PFH formulas and to propose new ones based on the Markovian approach. Indeed, the new edition of IEC 61508 provides PFH formulas reflecting the possibility of automatic shutdown of the monitored process upon detection of a dangerous failure in the SIS. However, the IEC 61508 attempt remains incomplete and provide non-conservative results, which is dangerous from a safety point of view.

Investigation on fatigue damage equivalence probability for the structure with similar fatigue hazardous detail parts

Fatigue damage of a whole structure with multiple similar fatigue hazardous detail parts is unclear. This paper focuses on the concept of quantified fatigue damage for the structure with similar fatigue hazardous detail parts by using the probability method and fatigue failure probability of the severe load spectrum. The probability criterion and calculation method of equivalent damage with different load spectra were proposed. The fatigue life probability distribution of the severe load spectrum was analyzed, and the acceleration ratio was defined by the similar details number of fatigue cracking in combination with the fatigue failure probability characteristics of the severe load spectrum. The results show that there is good agreement between the similar details number range of fatigue cracking in two load spectra, which means they are considered to be equivalent. The ratio of the sum of two similar details number ranges is used as acceleration ratio to evaluate the severe load spectrum. The application of this study in the statistical sense of engineering structure fatigue failure is more convincing.

Kriging Model for Reliability Analysis of the Offshore Steel Trestle Subjected to Wave and Current Loads

Offshore steel trestles (OSTs) are exposed to severe marine environments with stochastic wave and current loads, making structural safety assessment challenging and difficult. Reliability analysis is a suitable way to consider both wave and current loading intensity uncertainties, but the implicit and complex limit state functions of the reliability analysis usually imply huge computational costs. This paper proposes an efficient reliability analysis framework for OST using the kriging model of optimal linear unbiased estimation. The surrogate model is built with stochastic waves, current parameters, and the corresponding load factors. The framework is then used to evaluate the reliability of an example OST subjected to wave and current loads at three limit states of OST, including first yield (FY), full plastic (FP), and collapse initiation (CI). Three different distributions are used for comparison of the results of failure probability and reliability index. The results and the computational cost by the proposed framework are compared with that from the Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The influences of sample number on the prediction accuracy and reliability index are investigated. The influence of marine growth on the reliability analysis of the OST is discussed using MCS and the kriging model. The results show that the reliability analysis based on the kriging model can obtain the reliability index for the OST efficiently with less calculation time but similar results compared with MCS and LHS. With the increase of the number of samples, the prediction accuracy of the kriging model increases, and the corresponding failure probability fluctuates greatly at first and then tends to be stable. The reliability of the example OST is reduced with the increase of marine growth, regardless of the limit state.