scholarly journals Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

2004 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 337-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Gallimore ◽  
Patrick McAllister
2009 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Hardin III ◽  
Ken Johnson ◽  
Zhonghua Wu

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Falkenbach

The Finnish commercial property market internationalised rapidly in the beginning of the 21st century. According to the portfolio theory and previous research on international property investments, the main motivation factor driving international real estate investments is the possibility to reach diversification benefits. The paper discusses the diversification benefits offered by the Finnish property market in its early years of internationalisation. As international real estate investors in the Finnish property market include investors with both real estate only, as well as mixed‐asset portfolios, the diversification benefits are studied both in terms of a Finnish mixed-asset portfolio, as well as international real estate portfolio. Santruka XXI a. pradžioje Suomijos komercinio nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje sparčiai vyko tarptautiniai procesai. Remiantis portfelio teorija ir ankstesniais tyrimais apie tarptautines investicijas i nekilnojamaji turta, pag rindinis veiksnys, kuris skatina tarptautines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas ‐ tai galimybe gauti diversifi kacijos teikiama nauda. Darbe aptariama, kokia nauda siūle Suomijos nekilnojamojo turto rinka ankstyvaisiais internacionalizacijos metais. Kadangi kai kurie Suomijos nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje veikiantys tarptautiniai nekilnojamojo turto investuotojai užsiima tik nekilnojamuoju turtu, o yra ir tokiu, kurie turi mišraus turto portfelius, diversifi kacijos nauda nagrinejama ir pagal Suomijos mišraus turto portfeli, ir pagal tarptautini nekilnojamojo turto portfeli.


1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-262
Author(s):  
Anthony Saunders ◽  
Charles Ward

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-28
Author(s):  
Hamza Usman ◽  
Mohd Lizam ◽  
Burhaida Burhan

Abstract The improvement of property price modelling accuracy using property market segmentation approaches is well documented in the housing market. However, that cannot be said of the commercial property market which is adjudged to be volatile, heterogeneous and thinly traded. This study, therefore, determines if the commercial property market in Malaysia is spatially segmented into submarkets and whether accounting for the submarkets improves the accuracy of price modelling. Using a 11,460 shop-offices transaction dataset, the commercial property submarkets are delineated by using submarket binary dummies in the market-wide model and estimating a separate hedonic model for each submarket. The former method improves the model fit and reduces error by 5.6% and 6.5% respectively. The commercial property submarkets are better delineated by estimating a separate hedonic model for each submarket as it improves the model fit by about 7% and reduces models’ error by more than 10%. This study concludes that the Malaysian commercial property market is spatially segmented into submarkets. Modelling the submarkets improves the accuracy and correctness of price modelling.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Szweizer

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property yields by providing a cross-field approach through the implementation of methods used in physics.Design/methodology/approachBased on the equations used to describe real gases in physics, the commercial property yields are expressed through a model, as a product of two terms. The first term estimates the influence of the income change and investment on yields. The second estimates the yield variation as a function of property size. Additionally, the model combines the macroeconomic and microeconomic components influencing yield adjustment. Calculation of each component involves procedures developed in physics, with the investment volume being linked to the amount of gas and the microeconomic yield being linked to the gas compressibility.FindingsThe model was applied to the Auckland office and industrial markets, both to the historic and current cycle. At the macro-level, it was found that the use of accumulation of investment over a relevant cycle, results in a high data to model correlation. When modelling the yields at the micro-level, a relationship between the outlying properties and the yield softening was observed.Practical implicationsThe paper provides an enhanced modelling power through association of the cyclic and investment activity with the yield change. Moreover, the model may be used to decouple the local and the international investment components and the extent of their influence on the local property market. Furthermore, it may be used to estimate the influence of the property size on the yield.Originality/valueThis research provides a new cross-field application of modelling techniques and enhances the understanding of factors influencing yield adjustments.


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