A. J. Brown and the US Phillips Curve: A Comment

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Kenneth Button
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromír Baxa ◽  
Miroslav Plašil ◽  
Bořek Vašíček
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
Activity Measures ◽  
Dynamic Model Averaging

AbstractA sharp increase in unemployment accompanied by a relatively muted response of inflation during the Great Recession and a consecutive inflationless recovery cast further doubts on the very existence of the Phillips curve as a systemic relation between real activity and inflation. With the aid of dynamic model averaging, this paper aims to highlight that this relation resurfaces if (i) inflationary pressures are captured by a richer set of real activity measures, and (ii) one accounts for the existence of a non-linear response of inflation to the driving variable. Based on data for the US and other G7 countries, our results show that the relation between economic activity and inflation is quite sturdy when one allows for more complex assessment of the former. We find that measures of economic activity describe inflation developments to a varying degree across time and space. This can blur the picture of inflation–real economy comovements in models where only a single variable of economic activity is considered. The output gap is often outperformed by unemployment-related variables. Our results also confirm a weakening of the inflation–activity relationship (i.e. a flattening of the Phillips curve) in the last decade that is robust both across activity measures and across countries.

The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time*

2011 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gallegati ◽  
Mauro Gallegati ◽  
James Bernard Ramsey ◽  
Willi Semmler
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

Inflation and Macroeconomics in the US during the Golden Age

2021 ◽  
pp. 107-130
Author(s):  
Guilherme Spinato Morlin
Keyword(s):  
Golden Age ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
Demand Pull ◽  
The Us ◽  
Incomes Policy ◽  
The 1950S

This paper reviews interpretations of the moderate inflation observed in the US during the 1950s and early 1960s. In this period, moderate and persistent inflation disconcerted economists and challenged policymakers. The opposition between demand-pull and cost-push views stimulated different interpretations, as sectorial demand-shift inflation theory and the modified Phillips curve. As policy targeted growth and employment, incomes policy was applied to contain inflation. The pa-per provides an overview of explanations to the moderate inflationary process in light of the historical events of the Golden Age of capitalism.

Bayesian analysis of structural correlated unobserved components and identification via heteroskedasticity

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengheng Li ◽  
Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Structural Representation ◽  
Unobserved Components ◽  
Structural Interaction ◽  
Structural Interpretation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Unobserved Components Model

Abstract We propose a structural representation of the correlated unobserved components model, which allows for a structural interpretation of the interactions between trend and cycle shocks. We show that point identification of the full contemporaneous matrix which governs the structural interaction between trends and cycles can be achieved via heteroskedasticity. We develop an efficient Bayesian estimation procedure that breaks the multivariate problem into a recursion of univariate ones. An empirical implementation for the US Phillips curve shows that our model is able to identify the magnitude and direction of spillovers of the trend and cycle components both within-series and between-series.

scholarly journals US Growth And Inflation

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bivariate Association ◽  
Real Balances ◽  
The Impact

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper tests the relation between inflation and growth in the US. This relation is negative and statistically significant even with a monthly frequency. Moreover, the impact is higher with quarterly data, relative to annual data, and higher with monthly data relative to quarterly data. The relation remains robust (1) with IV (2SLS) estimation, (2) when inflation is divided into positive and negative components, (3) when it is divided into expected and unexpected components, and (4) when the applied model is an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Although the paper argues that the theory that should explain this negative relation is the demand for real balances, the evidence is also consistent with a simple bivariate association. </span></span></p>

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