External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.

The Post-COVID-19 Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence From China

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an upsurge economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Study on the time-varying effect of EPU is of substantial implication for the central bank in implementation of monetary policy. To empirically investigate the time-varying effect of EPU, the paper considers the shock of the monetary policy implemented by China's central bank on different economic variables including interest rate, output gap, and inflationary gap using the latent threshold time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (LT-TVP-VAR Model). Data period is chosen to be January 2015 through April 2021. Our findings show that (i) EPU has a significant threshold effect on the shock of quantitative monetary policy instrument and the shock of price-based monetary policy, and that the two types of policy are positively correlated; (ii) the price-based monetary policy instrument has a significant counter-cyclical effect on both output gap and inflationary gap; (iii) relative to the quantitative monetary policy instrument, the price-based monetary policy instrument has a more significant counter-cyclical effect on output gap; and (iv) a higher level of EPU is associated with a more significant monetary policy effect on output gap and inflationary gap.

Measuring the Output Gap using Large Datasets

We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (co-movements, non-stationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that, (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential; and, (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is mainly data-driven, our measure is a natural complementary tool to the theoretical models used at policy institutions.

Gender and Collaboration

We connect gender disparities in research output and collaboration patterns in economics. We first document large gender gaps in research output. These gaps persist across 50 years despite a significant increase in the fraction of women in economics during that time. We further show that output differences are closely related to differences in the co-authorship networks of men and women: women have fewer collaborators, collaborate more often with the same co-authors, and a higher fraction of their co-authors collaborate with each other. Taking into account co-authorship networks reduces the gender output gap by 18%.

Formation of Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability of Kazakhstan Using the Rule Structural Budget Balance

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the potential of using the results of modeling potential GDP and estimating the output gap to comply with fiscal rules that are adequate for the corresponding economic cycle of the economy of Kazakhstan. The methods of economic, statistical, graphical, system, functional analysis, economic and mathematical modeling are applied. To achieve this goal, the analysis of Kazakhstan’s fiscal stability was carried out based on the assessment of Kazakhstan’s potential GDP and the calculation of output gaps, which were carried out based on the dynamic series method of the reported real GDP in 2005 prices for 1991-2019 using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (CP) using the EViews 10 econometric package. The current mechanism for using the output gap indicator in Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy does not have sufficient flexibility. For a timely response of the budget system to changes in the economic situation in the country or abroad, considering the output gap, it is important to introduce an automatic adjustment system that can eliminate contradictions and inconsistencies when making macroeconomic policy decisions by the main regulator and the government of the country. To do this, there is a need to revise the existing fiscal policy based on building a system of new budget rules on countercyclical principles. The proposed alternative fiscal model with the introduction of the rule on the structural balance of the budget is aimed at ensuring long-term fiscal stability, which does not allow for a pro-cyclical policy.

Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate

A factor stochastic volatility model estimates the common component to output gap estimates produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve, its time-varying volatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. The output gap estimates are uncertain even well after the fact. Nevertheless, the common component is clearly procyclical, and positive innovations to the common component produce movements in macroeconomic variables consistent with an increase in aggregate demand. Heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the common component's volatility, leads to persistently negative economic responses.

What is the Sustainable Level of Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisions?

In this paper, we estimate the sustainable level of lifetime expected credit losses and provisions and assess the procyclicality of banks’ credit losses and provisions in the Czech Republic. Further, we discuss the implications of the results for provisioning in stage 3 under the IFRS 9. Based on the estimation results, we can identify periods of insufficient provisioning when the actual values were below the sustainable levels. Additionally, we show that credit losses and provisions behave procyclically (i.e., decrease with a rising output gap and increase with a falling output gap) while banks recognize impaired credit losses and create provisions with a delay of three to four quarters after the output gap starts shrinking. Such a delay may result in a sharp increase in lifetime expected credit losses and provisioning in response to a deterioration in economic conditions under the IFRS 9 regime.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Inflation Volatility, Exchange Rate and Output Gap Volatility in Turkey

This study investigates the short and long-run relationships between Inflation volatility, exchange rate, and output gap volatility using the ARDL bounds testing approach in Turkey. Also, we repeat the estimates by using the output gap as well. Moreover, we examine the causal relationship among these variables by using Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain causality tests. For this purpose, the study uses quarterly time series data between 2005 Q1 and 2020 Q4. Both short and long-run results of the ARDL estimates indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between exchange rate and inflation volatility, between output gap volatility and inflation volatility, and between the output gap and inflation volatility. As expected long-run effect of the exchange rate on inflation, volatility is negative, and the effects of both output volatility and output gap on inflation volatility are positive. Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap will have permanent and temporary causal effects on inflation volatility. Therefore, the study results provide new evidence about the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap. The policymakers should carefully consider these results to implement appropriate policies to reduce inflation volatility.

Inflation and Marginal Costs in Open Economies: The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve

The inclusion of the inflation rate in wage determination affects the behavior of economic actors and also positions the expected inflation as one of the main factors in determining inflation. Changes in currency parities in developing countries, which make their production dependent on imports, affect costs and prices. Moreover, changes in labor market structures resulting from free capital flows affect employment and the inflation phenomenon. This paper analyzes the current inflation, expected inflation, and output gap relations with the fuzzy linear regression method in the context of the Turkish economy, which has inflation and effective external dependency. Based on the results obtained using marginal cost instead of the output gap, policy recommendations are provided. The scope of this paper comprises the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips curve that includes external factors. The relationship between inflation and relevant variables is statistically significant and positive, proving the fuzzy linear regression results as promising. To obtain economic stability and policy precautions, we must examine whether the use of tight monetary policies for coping with inflation leads to unemployment and whether expansionist monetary policies lead to inflation.