The Future Disease Burden of Pandemic Covid-19 for Individuals, Communities, and Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Robert A. Michaels
Keyword(s):  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. i1-i6
Author(s):  
Y Xiang ◽  
K Chan ◽  
I Rudan

Abstract Background and Objectives Rapid increase in life expectancy has resulted in an increase in the global burden of dementia that is expected to become a leading cause of morbidity in the future. Low- and middle-income countries are expected to bear an increasing majority of the burden, but lack data for accurate burden estimates that are key for informing policy and planning. Bayesian methods have recently gained recognition over traditional frequentist approaches for modelling disease burden for their superiority in dealing with severely limited data. This study provides updated estimates of dementia prevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the years 2015, 2020 and 2030. Given the paucity of data, estimates were developed using a Bayesian methodology and confirmed by the traditional frequentist approach, with the aim of providing methodological insights for future disease burden estimates. Methods A comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted to identify all relevant primary studies published between the years 2010–2018. The quality of the included studies was critically assessed. A random-effects model (REM) and a Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) were used to obtain the pooled prevalence estimate of dementia for people aged 60 and above. The latter model was also developed to estimate age-specific dementia prevalence. Using UN population estimates, total and age-specific projections of the burden of dementia were calculated. Results The prevalence of dementia in LAC was found to be 14% (10–21%) in those above age 60 based on REM, and 8% (5–11.5%) based on NNHM. The prevalence increased from 2% (1–4%) in people aged 60–69 to 29% (20–37%) in people above the age of 80. The number of people living with dementia in LAC in 2015 was estimated at 5.68 million, with future projections of 6.86 million in 2020 and 9.94 million in 2030. Conclusions The findings of this review found that burden of dementia in LAC is substantial and continues to rapidly grow. The projected rise in dementia cases in the future should prompt urgent governmental response to address this growing public health issue. We were also able to demonstrate that given the overall paucity of data, a Bayesian approach was superior for estimating disease prevalence and burden.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zheng ◽  
Jie Wu ◽  
Cheng Ding ◽  
Kaijin Xu ◽  
Shigui Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Chronic hepatitis B has become a major public health problem in China. An accurate depiction of the disease burden has not yet been thoroughly conducted. We aimed to project the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and related complications by modeling various scenarios. Method : An individual-based Markov model was used to predict disease burden from 2006 through 2050. We simulated 5 scenarios with different annual incidences, diagnoses and nucleotide analog (NA) treatment rates as well as treatment eligibility, which included a natural history without diagnosis or NA therapy, a base case, a World Health Organization-proposed target case and two ideal cases. Result: The natural history scenario is projected to have the fewest HBsAg losses (27.59 million) and highest number of HBV-related deaths (27.19 million). With improved diagnosis and treatment rates of NA therapy, ideal cases have fewer HBV-related deaths (14.46-14.77 million) than do WHO-proposed cases (15.13 million) and base cases (16.89 million), but the proportion of HBsAg loss is similar among them. With a reduction in new infections, the prevalence of chronic HBV in 2050 is expected to be a minimum of 27.03-27.49 million under WHO and ideal cases. Conclusion: Ideal scenarios 1 and 2 contribute to the lowest disease burden of HBV and its complications in the future, in which new infection control is more effective than increasing diagnosis, treatment rate and treatment eligibility. However, considering the large existing chronic HBV infected population and the low HBsAg loss rate of NA therapy, it is still difficult to avert the increasing trend of cumulative cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT, and HBV-related death in all scenarios. If new high-potency drugs are not developed, the disease burden of chronic HBV will remain high in the future.


2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann-Sofi Duberg ◽  
Sarah Blach ◽  
Karolin Falconer ◽  
Martin Kåberg ◽  
Homie Razavi ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhong Jessika Hu ◽  
Melissa Wake ◽  
Susan Clifford ◽  
Jo Said

Abstract Focus and outcomes for participants “Children are our future” - the wellbeing of our future adults will influence the future of the world. However, this generation of children and mid-life adults face increasing rates of complex health and development problems, and many of them are preventable. Traditional research approaches are not keeping pace with need. Discovery and testing of solutions is blocked by the lack of fast, cheap, large-scale, low burden and effective ways to conduct research for the population and its many subgroups. Innovation in epidemiological methods is required to deliver large scale studies of unprecedented scale and scope. These will support research that enables better prevention, prediction and treatment – all of which are needed to solve today’s pressing child and adult health problems. This 90-minute symposium will draw on the forthcoming Generation Victoria (GenV) to illustrate innovative epidemiological methods established in its foundation phase to enable large-scale studies. GenV is designed to address physical, mental and social issues experienced during childhood and mid-adulthood, as well as the antecedents of a wide range of diseases of ageing. Parents of all newborns (estimated. 170,000) in the state of Victoria (population 6.5 million), Australia, will be approached from 2021 for two full years. Following consent, GenV proposes to bank biosamples collected during routine care, link to administrative and clinical data, and directly collect parent and child data using interactive electronic interfaces with the potential for face-to-face assessment during the school years. Encompassing clinical trials, registries, health services and geospatial as well as discovery research, GenV’s initial focus will be on pregnancy and newborns, reaching into regional and rural communities and traditionally hard-to-reach groups in sizeable numbers. Permission will be sought to link trials, registries, and health services research with existing pre- and post-birth administrative and electronic health record datasets, and also to bank biospecimens collected during routine care. We will discuss why innovation is essential to the next wave of large-scale studies such as GenV, and share practical examples of method innovations being developed within GenV. We will forecast the opportunities and challenges of large-scale studies for improving wellbeing and reducing the disease burden with children and adults. Focus: Outcomes: Rationale for the symposium, including for its inclusion in the Congress The future wellbeing and productivity of our societies depend on wellbeing and good health of our children and adults. However, today’s children and mid-life adults are facing both old and new challenges. Traditional research approaches have largely failed to deliver progress towards solving these challenges. For example, most existing cohorts only allow for observational follow up, and children are greatly under-represented in gold-standard clinical trials, which leads to less evidence to children’s treatment and prevention. Multi-purpose, low burden, high up-take innovative large studies are required to address these gaps. GenV seeks to generate translatable evidence (prediction, prevention, treatments, and services) to improve future wellbeing and reduce the future disease burden of children and adults. It will allow researchers, clinicians and policy makers to better understand the issues affecting Victorian children and their families with greater speed and precision, and therefore outcomes be translated more quickly into practice. Also it will help facilitate an environment where researchers, clinicians, policy makers, and other organisations can come together to enact change for future generations’ wellbeing. With this symposium, we intend to share our reflections on how the scale of cohort studies is changing, and showcase new trends in research design. The GenV team will then show how we practically achieve innovation in large-study methodology and design, with the aim of encouraging others to think ambitiously at large-scale. We will share our intentions and rationale for these innovations as well as the challenges. The symposium is designed to spark a discussion with the audience, seeking their reflections and suggestions on shaping our innovations. Finally, we aim to encourage researchers (especially early career researchers) to exchange their vision and views on innovations and methods for cohort studies. Presentation program (90 minutes) Names of presenters Prof Melissa Wake, Dr Susan Clifford, Dr Yanhong Jessika Hu, A/Prof Jo Said, Dr Joan Leong, Dr Suzanne Mavoa.


2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. i34-i36
Author(s):  
E Braithwaite ◽  
D Thomas ◽  
S Ninan

Abstract Introduction Despite, being a specialty intimately acquainted with growing old, there has been little research on how geriatricians view ageing in the terms it might affect themselves in the future. We wished to survey geriatricians as to how they viewed their own futures as they grew older. Methods We constructed a short survey using survey monkey and sent it to all BGS members, electronically. We also tweeted links to the survey from our personal accounts publicly. Only geriatricians were asked to reply. The survey was open between 25th March and 26th June 2019. Results 143 people responded to the survey49% agreed or strongly agreed that they were looking forward to old age65% agreed or strongly agreed that they were worried about the thought of being frail70% agreed or strongly agreed that they were worried about developing dementia Despite these responses89% agreed or strongly agreed that old age will be an enjoyable time of life76% agreed or strongly agreed that they promoted a positive image of older age to friends and colleagues85% agreed or strongly agreed that they would be enthusiastic about life in older age74% agreed or strongly agreed that they looked forward to the social life they would have in older age Themes that arose in the free text responses regarding greatest fears for old age included dependence, physical disability and frailty, dementia, loneliness, bereavement, financial difficulties and the future of society. Respondents hopes for old age included independence and health, enjoying relationships, having more time, and contributing to society. Conclusions Despite, or perhaps because of, looking after frail older people as part of their profession, geriatricians have mixed feelings towards growing old themselves. Despite most agreeing that old age will be enjoyable, only half of respondents were looking forward to older age. Dementia, dependency and loneliness were common fears for geriatricians. Geriatricians’ experience of older age is often in the form of looking after the people who are the frailest of their age group, with the most marked disease burden. Strategies for geriatricians to consider the breadth and variety of old age might come through engagement with the field of medical humanities, reflective practice and spending more time with older people who have less disease burden.


1961 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 29-41
Author(s):  
Wm. Markowitz
Keyword(s):  

A symposium on the future of the International Latitude Service (I. L. S.) is to be held in Helsinki in July 1960. My report for the symposium consists of two parts. Part I, denoded (Mk I) was published [1] earlier in 1960 under the title “Latitude and Longitude, and the Secular Motion of the Pole”. Part II is the present paper, denoded (Mk II).


1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 387-388
Author(s):  
A. R. Klemola
Keyword(s):  

Second-epoch photographs have now been obtained for nearly 850 of the 1246 fields of the proper motion program with centers at declination -20° and northwards. For the sky at 0° and northward only 130 fields remain to be taken in the next year or two. The 270 southern fields with centers at -5° to -20° remain for the future.


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