Abstract
Background: Thousands of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have been discharged from hospitals, long-term follow-up studies are required to evaluate the prevalence of post-COVID-19 fibrosis.Methods: This study involves 462 laboratory confirmed patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital from January 11, 2020 to April 26, 2020. A total of 457 patients underwent thin-section chest CT scans during the hospitalization or after discharge to identify the pulmonary lesion. A total of 289 patients were followed up from 90 days to 150 days after the onset of the disease.Results: Parenchymal bands, irregular interfaces, meshwork and traction bronchiectasis were the most common CT features in all COVID-19 patients. 86.87%, 74.40%, 79.56%, 68.12% and 62.03% patients developed with pulmonary fibrosis and 4.53%, 19.61%, 18.02%, 38.30% and 48.98% patients reversed pulmonary fibrosis during the 0-30, 31-60, 61-90, 91-120 and >120 days after onset, respectively. It was observed that Age, BMI, Fever, and Highest PCT were predictive factors for sustaining fibrosis even after 90 days from onset. A predictive model of the persistence with pulmonary fibrosis was developed based-on the Logistic Regression method with an accuracy, PPV, NPV, Sensitivity and Specificity of the model of 76%, 71%, 79%, 67%, and 82%, respectively. Only a fraction of COVID-19 patients suffered with abnormal lung function after 90 days from onset, and the ratio of abnormal lung function did not differ on a statistically significant level between the fibrotic and non-fibrotic groups.Conclusions: Long-term pulmonary fibrosis was more likely to develop in patients with older age, high BMI, severe/critical condition, fever, long time to turn the viral RNA negative, pre-existing disease and delay to admission. Fibrosis developed in COVID-19 patients could be reversed in about a half of the patients after 120 days from onset. The pulmonary function of most of COVID-19 patients with pulmonary fibrosis could turn to normal condition after three months from onset. An effective prediction model with an average Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.84 was established to predict the persistence of pulmonary fibrosis in COVID-19 patients for early diagnosis.
Long-term Follow-up in Patients Diagnosed and Treated for Pulmonary Tuberculosis: What Really Happened With the Lung Function?
