scholarly journals Modelling team performance in soccer using tactical features derived from position tracking data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
F R Goes ◽  
M Kempe ◽  
J van Norel ◽  
K A P M Lemmink
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Position Tracking ◽  
Tracking Data ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Learning Classifier ◽  
Notational Analysis ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Linear Discriminant Analysis Model

Abstract Decision-makers in soccer routinely assess the tactical behaviour of a team and its opponents both during and after the game to optimize performance. Currently, this assessment is typically driven by notational analysis and observation. Therefore, potential high-impact decisions are often made based on limited or even biased information. With the current study, we aimed to quantitatively assess tactical performance by abstracting a set of spatiotemporal features from the general offensive principles of play in soccer using position tracking data, and to train a machine learning classifier to predict match outcome based on these features computed over the full game as well as only parts of the game. Based on the results of these analyses, we describe a proof of concept of a decision support system for coaches and managers. In an analysis of 302 professional Dutch Eredivisie matches, we were able to train a Linear Discriminant Analysis model to predict match outcome with fair to good (74.1%) accuracy with features computed over the full match, and 67.9% accuracy with features computed over only 1/4th of the match. We therefore conclude that using only position tracking data, we can provide valuable feedback to coaches about how their team is executing the various principles of play, and how these principles are contributing to overall performance.

Statistical models to predict discharge overflow

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208-1218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartosz Szeląg ◽  
Łukasz Bąk ◽  
Roman Suligowski ◽  
Jarosław Górski
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Linear Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Linear Discriminant Analysis Model

Abstract In the paper, a comparison of prediction results concerning the annual number of discharges of stormwater from the drainage system due to stormwater overflows is depicted. The prediction has been computed by means of storm water management model (SWMM) and probabilistic models. Regarding the probabilistic modelling some simple statistical models such as logit, probit, Gompertz and linear discriminant analysis model have been applied, and as for the hydrodynamic modelling a generator of synthetic rainfall based on the Monte Carlo method has been used. The analyses conducted has shown that logit, probit and Gompertz models give outputs that are comparable with the results of hydrodynamic modelling and are concordant with observations. Whereas the annual number of stormwater discharge predicted by the linear discriminant analysis model is significantly lower than the number obtained by hydrodynamic modelling. The calculations made have confirmed the possibility of using statistical models as an alternative for developing labour-consuming and complex hydrodynamic models. The statistical models can be used successfully to predict the stormwater overflows operation provided that the measurements of rainfall in the catchment and of filling the overflow are available.

scholarly journals Probability elicitation using geostatistics in hydrocarbon exploration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Luís Morosov ◽  
Reidar Brumer Bratvold
Keyword(s):  
Value Creation ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Hydrocarbon Exploration ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Geological Information ◽  
Decision Supporting

AbstractThe exploratory phase of a hydrocarbon field is a period when decision-supporting information is scarce while the drilling stakes are high. Each new prospect drilled brings more knowledge about the area and might reveal reserves, hence choosing such prospect is essential for value creation. Drilling decisions must be made under uncertainty as the available geological information is limited and probability elicitation from geoscience experts is key in this process. This work proposes a novel use of geostatistics to help experts elicit geological probabilities more objectively, especially useful during the exploratory phase. The approach is simpler, more consistent with geologic knowledge, more comfortable for geoscientists to use and, more comprehensive for decision-makers to follow when compared to traditional methods. It is also flexible by working with any amount and type of information available. The workflow takes as input conceptual models describing the geology and uses geostatistics to generate spatial variability of geological properties in the vicinity of potential drilling prospects. The output is stochastic realizations which are processed into a joint probability distribution (JPD) containing all conditional probabilities of the process. Input models are interactively changed until the JPD satisfactory represents the expert’s beliefs. A 2D, yet realistic, implementation of the workflow is used as a proof of concept, demonstrating that even simple modeling might suffice for decision-making support. Derivative versions of the JPD are created and their effect on the decision process of selecting the drilling sequence is assessed. The findings from the method application suggest ways to define the input parameters by observing how they affect the JPD and the decision process.

scholarly journals A model for spectroscopic food sample analysis using data sonification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsein Kew
Keyword(s):  
Dimensionality Reduction ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Reduction Method ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Linear Discriminant ◽  
Audio Output ◽  
Dimensionality Reduction Method

AbstractIn this paper, we propose a method to generate an audio output based on spectroscopy data in order to discriminate two classes of data, based on the features of our spectral dataset. To do this, we first perform spectral pre-processing, and then extract features, followed by machine learning, for dimensionality reduction. The features are then mapped to the parameters of a sound synthesiser, as part of the audio processing, so as to generate audio samples in order to compute statistical results and identify important descriptors for the classification of the dataset. To optimise the process, we compare Amplitude Modulation (AM) and Frequency Modulation (FM) synthesis, as applied to two real-life datasets to evaluate the performance of sonification as a method for discriminating data. FM synthesis provides a higher subjective classification accuracy as compared with to AM synthesis. We then further compare the dimensionality reduction method of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis in order to optimise our sonification algorithm. The results of classification accuracy using FM synthesis as the sound synthesiser and PCA as the dimensionality reduction method yields a mean classification accuracies of 93.81% and 88.57% for the coffee dataset and the fruit puree dataset respectively, and indicate that this spectroscopic analysis model is able to provide relevant information on the spectral data, and most importantly, is able to discriminate accurately between the two spectra and thus provides a complementary tool to supplement current methods.

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