Confidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 61-73
Author(s):  
Joe Ungemah

This chapter retells the story of Captain Chesley Sullenberger who successfully crash-landed US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson, demonstrating how confidence, skill, and composure can lead to amazing results. This is contrasted to the follies of Nick Leeson who single-handedly broke Barings Bank (the oldest merchant bank) through a combination of greed and fear, demonstrating what happens when confidence outpaces true capability. The chapter is rounded out by a recent study about final salary arbitrations in Major League Baseball, highlighting how confidence, individual capability, and ego-threat interact to predict who chokes under pressure both in and out of the workplace. Those who have the most to lose tend to fall the hardest.

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 232596712110152
Author(s):  
Lucas G. Teske ◽  
Edward C. Beck ◽  
Garrett S. Bullock ◽  
Kristen F. Nicholson ◽  
Brian R. Waterman

Background: Although lower extremity biomechanics has been correlated with traditional metrics among baseball players, its association with advanced statistical metrics has not been evaluated. Purpose: To establish normative biomechanical parameters during the countermovement jump (CMJ) among Major League Baseball (MLB) players and evaluate the relationship between CMJ-developed algorithms and advanced statistical metrics. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: MLB players in 2 professional organizations performed the CMJ at the beginning of each baseball season from 2013 to 2017. We collected ground-reaction force data including the eccentric rate of force development (“load”), concentric vertical force (“explode”), and concentric vertical impulse (“drive”) as well as the Sparta Score. The advanced statistical metrics from each baseball season (eg, fielding independent pitching [FIP], weighted stolen base runs [wSB], and weighted on-base average) were also gathered for the study participants. The minimal detectable change (MDC) was calculated for each CMJ variable to establish normative parameters. Pearson coefficient analysis and regression trees were used to evaluate associations between CMJ data and advanced statistical metrics for the players. Results: A total of 151 pitchers and 138 batters were included in the final analysis. The MDC for “load,” “explode,” “drive,” and the Sparta Score was 10.3, 8.1, 8.7, and 4.6, respectively, and all demonstrated good reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient > 0.75). There was a weak but statistically significant correlation between the Sparta Score and wSB ( r = 0.23; P = .007); however, there were no significant correlations with any other advanced metrics. Regression trees demonstrated superior FIP with higher Sparta Scores in older pitchers compared with younger pitchers. Conclusion: There was a positive but weak correlation between the Sparta Score and base-stealing performance among professional baseball players. Additionally, older pitchers with a higher Sparta Score had statistically superior FIP compared with younger pitchers with a similar Sparta Score after adjusting for age.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 232596712096853
Author(s):  
Braden McKnight ◽  
Nathanael D. Heckmann ◽  
Xiao T. Chen ◽  
Kevork Hindoyan ◽  
J. Ryan Hill ◽  
...  

Background: Ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction is frequently performed on Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers. Previous studies have investigated the effects of UCL reconstruction on fastball and curveball velocity, but no study to date has evaluated its effect on fastball accuracy or curveball movement among MLB pitchers. Purpose/Hypothesis: The primary purpose of this study was to determine the effects of UCL reconstruction on fastball accuracy, fastball velocity, and curveball movement in MLB pitchers. Our hypothesis was that MLB pitchers who underwent UCL reconstruction would return to their presurgery fastball velocity, fastball accuracy, and curveball movement. The secondary purpose of this study was to determine which factors, if any, were predictive of poor performance after UCL reconstruction. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: MLB pitchers who underwent UCL reconstruction surgery between 2011 and 2012 were identified. Performance data including fastball velocity, fastball accuracy, and curveball movement were evaluated 1 year preoperatively and up to 3 years of play postoperatively. A repeated-measures analysis of variance with a Tukey-Kramer post hoc test was used to determine statistically significant changes in performance over time. Characteristic factors and presurgery performance statistics were compared between poor performers (>20% decrease in fastball accuracy) and non—poor performers. Results: We identified 56 pitchers with a total of 230,995 individual pitches for this study. After exclusion for lack of return to play (n = 14) and revision surgery (n = 3), 39 pitchers were included in the final analysis. The mean presurgery fastball pitch-to-target distance was 32.9 cm. There was a statistically significant decrease in fastball accuracy after reconstruction, which was present up to 3 years postoperatively ( P = .007). The mean presurgery fastball velocity of 91.82 mph did not significantly change after surgery ( P = .194). The mean presurgery curveball movement of 34.49 cm vertically and 5.89 cm horizontally also did not change significantly ( P = .937 and .161, respectively). Conclusion: Fastball accuracy among MLB pitchers significantly decreased after UCL reconstruction for up to 3 years postoperatively. There were no statistically significant differences in characteristic factors or presurgery performance statistics between poor and non--poor performers.


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