Predicting Seasonal Performance in Professional Sport: A 30-Year Analysis of Sports Illustrated Predictions

In 2017, Sports Illustrated (SI) made headlines when their remarkable prediction from 2014 that the Houston Astros (a team in one of the lowest Major League Baseball divisional rankings) would win the World Series, came true. The less-publicised story was that in 2017, SI predicted the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the Major League Baseball (MLB) title. Assessing the forecasting accuracy of experts is critical as it explores the difficulty and limitations of forecasts and can help illuminate how predictions may shape sociocultural notions of sport in society. To thoroughly investigate SI’s forecasting record, predictions were collected from the four major North American sporting leagues (the National Football League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and National Hockey League) over the last 30 years (1988–2018). Kruskal–Wallis H Tests and Mann–Whitney U Tests were used to evaluate the absolute and relative accuracy of predictions. Results indicated that SI had the greatest predictive accuracy in the National Basketball Association and was significantly more likely to predict divisional winners compared to conference and league champions. Future work in this area may seek to examine multiple media outlets to gain a more comprehensive perspective on forecasting accuracy in sport.

Why Do Koreans Love Ethnic Players in the MLB? A Focus on Ethnic Identity and Player Identification

Asians hold a collectivistic culture, and they feel attachment to people who have the same ethnic background. This study explored how roles of ethnic identity influenced fan behaviors of Korean audiences toward Hyun-jin Ryu, the Korean Major League Baseball player. The results showed that ethnic identity influenced player identification, which led to attitudes toward the L.A. Dodgers. Congruence mediated the relationship between ethnic identity and player identification. It is also found that transportation mediated the relationship between player identification and attitudes toward the L.A. Dodgers. These results provide a cultural explanation of fan behaviors of ethnic players. Managerial implications can also be found.

Major League Missteps: How MLB Mishandled the Astros Cheating Scandal

Major League Baseball (MLB) has been criticized for its handling of the Astros’ cheating scandal. Researchers used a case study method to test whether Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) should be expanded to include collaborative brand attack (CBA) as a crisis type. Researchers used traditional and extended SCCT to analyze MLB’s crisis response to determine which version fit best. Data were triangulated from sports news sources, MLB’s official statement and Twitter account, and social media influencer and stakeholder posts. Researchers asked which SCCT response MLB used and whether it was effective with stakeholders. Because of poor history, MLB’s accidental crisis response mismatched the level of stakeholder attribution of responsibility. Another question examined the role of social media. Major League Baseball underestimated the role of social media and SM influencers and, by underutilizing its Twitter feed, left stakeholders to attribute greater responsibility to MLB. Two final questions asked whether SCCT should be updated to include the CBA crisis type and whether it applied in this case. The results indicate the negative consequences of crisis/response mismatch and indicate that CBA should be incorporated into SCCT to address social media influence. This is the first known study to apply CBA in a sports context.

Is Workload Associated with Ulnar Collateral Ligament Tears in Professional Baseball Players? An Analysis of Days of Rest, Innings Pitched and Batters Faced (126)

Objectives: To determine if workload; as measured by number of days rest between outings, innings pitched, batters faced, and being a starting pitcher; associates with risk for sustaining a subsequent UCL tear in professional baseball players. Methods: All professional baseball pitchers who sustained a UCL tear between 2011-2017 were identified using the major league baseball (MLB) Health and Injury Tracking System (HITS). A separate player usage was used to determine workload . We then compared these variables between player-games 2, 6, 12, and >12 weeks prior to a documented UCL tear and player games from a non-UCL tear control group. In a paired analysis, we compared the acute workload (2, 6, 12 weeks) prior to injury and the injured player’s workload >12 weeks prior to injury. Results: There were 2,204 elbow injuries within MLB, 369 of which were unique UCL tears in pitchers. In all time periods, player-games with more days rest, more innings pitched, and more batters faced associated with a subsequent UCL tear. Players who pitched 4 of more innings per outing had a 1.78-fold increase in percent of players with a subsequent UCL tear as compared to players with one inning pitched. Being a starting pitcher carried a relative risk of 1.51 (p<0.001) of subsequent UCL injury. In a paired analysis there were significantly more innings pitched and batters faced in the player-games 2 weeks prior to UCL injury than in the player-games >12 weeks prior to UCL injury (p=0.028 and p=0.017). Conclusions: Being a starting pitcher, pitching more innings per game, and facing more batters per game increased the risk of a UCL tear. An increase in workload in the 2 weeks prior to injury over that player’s baseline also significantly increased the risk for injury.

Performance Analytics and Pitch Metrics as Predictors of Ulnar Collateral Ligament Injury in Major League Baseball Pitchers (128)

Objectives: Ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury is a significant concern in elite throwers, and it is associated with prolonged time away from competition in Major League Baseball (MLB) pitchers. Identifying athletes at higher risk of injury, with the subsequent goal of injury prevention, may positively impact pitcher health while mitigating the significant economic impact of this injury on professional organizations. As technology continues to advance, more granular assessments of performance are becoming possible. In 2015, Major League Baseball introduced StatCast, a spatiotemporal data tracking system that uses a standardized camera system and radar technology, to optically track player and ball movement to measure and quantify game events. This technology allows for further investigation of the science of pitching and provides new frontiers for injury research. Understanding UCL injuries in MLB pitchers may also provide insight into youth pitching injuries. To date, there is a paucity of evidence regarding risk factors of UCL injury in MLB pitchers. Methods: All MLB pitchers who underwent primary UCLR between 2015 and 2019 were identified from publicly available reports. This date range was selected to capture the seasons in which Statcast data was available. Advanced analytics and pitch metrics from the injury season—including velocity, spin rates, and pitch movement from MLB StatCast data—were collected as well as the seasonal data of an uninjured control group. Binomial logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors for UCL injury. Results: Seventy-six MLB pitchers undergoing primary UCL reconstruction were included, and a control group of 95 uninjured pitchers was identified. There was no significant difference in age, height, weight, or BMI between the two cohorts. A logistic regression model was created using the following variables: 4-seam fastball velocity, 4-seam fastball spin rate, slider spin rate, curveball spin rate, strikeout percentage, and wins above replacement (WAR). The model explained 18.4% of the variance and predicted 70.4% of UCL injuries. Increasing WAR was associated with increasing likelihood of subsequent UCL injury (odds ratio [OR] 2.34; 95% CI, 1.08–5.07; p = 0.031). Conclusions: When controlling for fastball velocity and pitch spin rates, MLB pitchers who are more valuable, as indicated by WAR, may be at an elevated risk of UCL injury. While velocity is a known risk factor for UCL injury, this model indicates that other factors, including performance or pitch metrics, may influence single-season injury risk and warrant future investigation in multi-year studies.