scholarly journals A study of the reliability of cross-sectional earnings forecasting models for estimating IPO firms’ implied cost of capital

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Schreder ◽  
Pawel Bilinski
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Implied Cost Of Capital ◽  
Earnings Forecasting

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the earnings forecasting models of Hou et al. (J Account Econ, 53:504–526, 2012) and Li and Mohanram (Rev Account Stud, 19:1152–1185, 2014) in terms of bias and accuracy and validity of the implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates for a sample of initial public offerings (IPOs). Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sample of 1,657 NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq IPOs from 1972 to 2013. Findings The models of Hou et al. and Li and Mohanram produce relatively inaccurate and biased earnings forecasts, leading to unreliable ICC estimates, particularly for small and loss-making IPOs that constitute the bulk of new listings. As a remedy, the authors propose a new earnings forecasting model, a combination of Hou et al.’s and Li and Mohanram’s earnings persistence models, and show that it produces more accurate and less biased earnings forecasts and more valid ICC estimates. Originality/value The study contributes novel results to the literature on the validity of cross-sectional earnings models in forecasting IPO firm earnings and estimating the ICC. The findings are directly relevant for practitioners, who can improve their earnings forecasting accuracy for IPO firms and related ICC estimates. The insights can be extended to other settings where investors have limited access to financial information, such as acquisitions of private targets.

IPO valuation using the price-multiple methods: evidence from Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chui Zi Ong ◽  
Rasidah Mohd-Rashid ◽  
Kamarun Nisham Taufil-Mohd
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Multiple Methods ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Valuation Method

Purpose This study aims to investigate the valuation accuracy of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs) by using price-multiple methods. Design/methodology/approach Cross-sectional data including 467 IPOs listed on the Malaysian stock exchange were used for the period of 2000–2017. This study used univariate ordinary least square (OLS) regression to analyse the relationship between IPOs’ price-multiples and comparable firms’ price-multiples. The test of valuation accuracy was conducted via computing valuation errors by segregating the sample into two groups: fixed-price IPOs and book-built IPOs. Furthermore, multiple OLS regression was used to examine the influence of IPO valuation on underpricing. Findings The findings of the results suggested that IPOs price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-sales (P/S) multiples were positively related to the median P/E, P/B and P/S multiples of five comparable firms matched by industry and revenues. The P/S multiple was shown to be the most significant valuation method, specifically in book-built IPOs. The findings indicated that those firms that had a lower valuation in comparison to the comparable firms were inclined to underprice their IPOs to allure investors to subscribe IPOs. In addition, book-built IPOs that had fair valuations were inclined to generate higher initial returns for investors. Practical implications The findings of this study observed implications for underwriters in avoiding the mis-valuation issue by considering the book-building mechanism. Originality/value This study attempted to explore the suitability of the valuation method to value IPOs in Malaysia.

Impact of pricing mechanism on IPO oversubscription: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waqas Mehmood ◽  
Rasidah Mohd-Rashid ◽  
Abd Halim Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Pricing Mechanism ◽  
Available Information

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of pricing mechanism on initial public offerings (IPOs) oversubscription in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach This study used cross-sectional data to analyse 85 listed IPOs on the Pakistan stock exchange during the period of 2000-2017 to assess hypotheses related to influential determinants of IPO oversubscription. Accordingly, ordinary least square, robust regression and quantile regression approaches were applied in this study to evaluate the factors that influenced oversubscription. Findings The outcome displayed pricing mechanism is negatively significant with an oversubscription of IPOs. This indicates firms using the fixed-price mechanism signalled higher information asymmetry and uncertainty in their value. Thus, investors are aware that they will be offset with underpricing, and it is expected the demand will be higher for the particular IPOs. Research limitations/implications This study is entirely focused on the available information of prospectus that should not be ignored by potential investors at the time of subscription of IPO. Therefore, the study contributes to extending the available literature in signalling theory whereby issuers should consider using the book-building pricing mechanism in enhancing the efficiency of the IPO offer price during the listing. Originality/value This paper provides evidence for the determinants of the IPO oversubscription.

Do sponsors and democratic government influence the flipping activity of Pakistan IPO? Evidence from developing market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayesha Anwar ◽  
Rasidah Mohd-Rashid ◽  
Norliza Che Yahya ◽  
Chui Zi Ong
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Government ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of sponsors and democratic government on the flipping activity of initial public offerings (IPOs). Design/methodology/approach Based on the sample of 95 IPOs listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange between January 2000 and December 2019, this study used multiple cross-sectional regression to examine the relationship between sponsors and democratic government on flipping activity. Findings The findings indicate a significant negative association between sponsors and the flipping activity of IPOs. Sponsor(s) signal quality by trying to share accurate information about company values. As a result, the confidence of rational investors in the company’s future prospectus increases and they hold their shares for future gains, which reduces the flipping activity. Also, democratic government, along with sponsors' participation, provides investors with liquidity immediately after listing. Practical limitations/implications The findings of this study have implications for investors as they may assist them make informed decisions about whether or not to invest in an IPO with high sponsor(s) ownership. In addition, issuers should consider the disclosure of sponsor information(s) as such information may directly affect the first day’s trading volumes. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research study that explores the correlation between sponsors and democratic government and flipping activity of IPO. This study is important for investors and issuers.

Underwriter reputation and IPO valuation in an emerging market: evidence from Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1283-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chui Zi Ong ◽  
Rasidah Mohd-Rashid ◽  
Kamarun Nisham Taufil-Mohd
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Underwriter Reputation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the influence of underwriter reputation on the valuation of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).Design/methodology/approachThis study employed cross-sectional multiple regression models to analyse the relationship between underwriter reputation and IPO valuation that included 466 IPOs listed on Bursa Malaysia from 2000 to 2017.FindingsThe results revealed that underwriter reputation had a significant negative association with IPO valuation. Firms that engaged the services of reputable underwriters had their IPO offer prices set lower than the intrinsic values during the listing. After incorporating firms' size, this study found a positive relationship between underwriter reputation and IPO valuation. Big firms (high quality) hired reputable underwriters for certification purposes as issuers were aware that the cost of hiring a reputable underwriter would be justified by increased transparency after listing. Therefore, firms that engaged reputable underwriters had approximately fair values since issuers assumed that the price would be close to the intrinsic value following enhanced transparency post-listing.Research limitations/implicationsFuture studies should focus on other non-financial factors, such as auditor reputation.Originality/valueThe present study provides new insights into the certification role of underwriters in valuing IPOs in the Malaysian market.

Earnings management and issue characteristics: an empirical analysis of IPOs in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepa Mangala ◽  
Mamta Dhanda
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Profitability Premium ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose This study aims to examine earnings management around initial public offerings (IPOs) in India. It also explores the influence of issue characteristics on earnings management around the IPOs. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 511 IPOs that came during April 2003-March 2019 is studied for calculating earnings management for pre-issue, issue and post-issue years. Using Cross-Sectional Modified Jones Model, the paper presents earnings management on the basis of three proxies i.e. discretionary accruals, discretionary current accruals and discretionary long-term accruals. The influence of issue characteristics on earnings management practised around the IPOs is also observed through correlation and multiple regression analysis. Findings The paper finds that earnings management is abnormally high during the issue year compared with pre-issue and post-issue years. It also unveils that profitability, premium, age, and size of the issuer significantly determine the level of pre-issue and issue year earnings management practised by Indian IPO issuers. Research limitations/implications The findings are useful to stakeholders (potential investors, analysts and regulators) to observe, assess and understand the quality of financial numbers that are based on fallacious disclosure of accounting figures. It provides insight into the possibilities of managed earnings around the issue that could influence investors’ decision-making. Further, the study reflects the efficacy of Indian regulatory norms for IPOs. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, it is the only Indian study that had used an extensive data set of about two decades to calculate earnings management during pre-issue, issue and post-issue years. The uniqueness of the study further lies in three proxies of earnings management representing short-term and long-term accruals. Moreover, it is the first study to observe the influence of IPO issue characteristics on earnings management.

Earnings management and listing day performance of IPOs in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepa Mangala ◽  
Mamta Dhanda
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Industry Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the influence of earnings management during initial public offerings on the listing day returns.Design/methodology/approachThe study collected data for 511 Indian IPOs that came between April 2003 and March 2019 for calculating earnings management. On the basis of the Cross Sectional Modified Jones Model 1995, the paper presents three proxies of earnings management as discretionary accruals (DA), discretionary current accruals (DCA) and discretionary long-term accruals (DLA). The study further used correlation and multiple regression analysis to assess the impact of earnings management on listing day returns.FindingsThe findings show that earnings management and listing day returns vary through issue-year and industry-type. Apart from it, the study reveals a greater contribution of short-term accruals in earnings management on the basis of higher DCA values. It also discloses that the aggregate level of earnings management (DA) influences listing returns, whereas DCA and DLA separately have no impact on the listing day returns of the Indian IPOs.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are useful to potential investors and analysts to observe, assess and understand the quality of financial reports that are based on fallacious disclosure of accounting figures. The study also reflects the efficacy of Indian regulatory norms for IPOs in constraining earnings management and underpricing, thus providing meaningful insight to the policy makers and the regulators.Originality/valueThis study is distinguished by its focus on determining the influence of earnings management on listing day returns in Indian IPOs by using three earnings management proxies.

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