Hungary opposition will give ruling party tough fight

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Headline HUNGARY: Opposition will give ruling party tough fight

Significance He is Beijing's preferred candidate and appears to have a cordial relationship with President Xi Jinping. He takes the helm at a moment when relations with China are the tensest they have been in more than a decade. Impacts Chu will stick to the '1992 Consensus' that there is only one China. Chu will take a more cautious approach to cross-Strait cooperation than Taiwan's last Kuomintang president, Ma Ying-jeou (2008-16). The task of making the Kuomintang a ruling party again will probably require a more charismatic leader than Chu.


Headline ANGOLA: Court ruling will bolster ruling party


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Headline VIETNAM: Factionalism ruling party will increase


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Headline NIGERIA: Electoral bill veto may weaken ruling party


Significance He was elected on June 9 with a record majority of nearly 68%, after stepping down as prime minister in January. The MPP now holds all the highest offices: the presidency, the office of the prime minister and the office of the speaker of parliament. Impacts Development plans and government finances will rely on rising copper prices. Despite high vaccination levels, COVID-19 is spreading and calls for more lockdowns are growing; these would threaten economic recovery. Beijing will see Khurelsukh as friendlier than his predecessors, but significant concessions to China are unlikely.


Significance Municipal elections on May 16 will be particularly significant in Zagreb, where Bandic’s death lays wide open Croatia’s third-most-important political contest, after those for parliament and the presidency. His 20-year rule of Croatia’s capital was dogged by accusations of corruption, including a spell in prison awaiting trial. He died with the Agram case and an appeal against acquittal in another case undecided. Impacts Bandic was a key HDZ ally in the capital, where the ruling party has little traction. His well-established network of political and business associates could try to survive under new leadership. Zagreb is a key political prize in Croatia, with GDP per capita twice the national average and one-fifth of the population.


Significance Notably, the party defied expectations by reportedly winning comfortably in the capital Addis Ababa. Impacts Ethiopia’s government will invoke the outcome to reject international pressure and perceived encroachments on the country’s sovereignty. As electoral calculations fade, Abiy may have greater scope to make concessions on major national and international disputes. Tigray will remain unrepresented at the national level.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-148
Author(s):  
Wai Kwok Benson Wong

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explain how post-1997 Hong Kong has been perceived in Taiwan and to critically evaluate the demonstration effects of Hong Kong under the “One Country, Two Systems” policy on cross-strait relations. Design/methodology/approach “Today’s Hong Kong, Tomorrow’s Taiwan” has become a dominant discourse in cross-strait relations in recent years. The paper has adopted discourse analysis of selected texts during and after the 2014 Sunflower Movement to elucidate the disapproval of the developments of post-handover Hong Kong and the construction of the Movement’s self-identity. Findings It has observed the following arguments which shaped the prevailing perceptions among critics of the “One Country, Two Systems” policy: political infiltration of China in Hong Kong could be extended to Taiwan in the sense that the Beijing authorities would adopt the identical approach to manipulate Taiwan through the cross-strait trading agreements; negative perceptions and images of China and Chinese capitals as a collective aggressor and a threat, raising fear and worries in both Hong Kong and Taiwan; and Kuomintang, as a ruling party at that time under the leadership of President Ma Ying-jeoh, was dismissed by protesters as an incompetent gatekeeper and defender of Taiwan’s interests. Originality/value The pervasive sentiments and perceptions about post-1997 Hong Kong has been articulated discursively by the young activists in Taiwan and Hong Kong into a statement – “Today’s Hong Kong, Tomorrow’s Taiwan” – which has brought about a somewhat unexpected bonding effect between Hong Kong and Taiwan through a strong disapproval of “One Country, Two Systems” and the China factor, which has be reproduced, delivered and circulated in both societies since 2014.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.


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