An Analysis on the Impact of Natural Disasters on the Economy of the Philippines

Over the past century, natural disasters have been terrorizing the economy by causing human fatalities and damaging infrastructure and production inputs. The Solow growth model suggests that natural disasters adversely affect gross domestic product (GDP) since these disrupt the production of inputs. On the contrary, the Schumpeterian growth theory provides an explanation behind the positive effect of natural disasters on economic growth. This study analyzed the relationship between natural disasters (i.e. earthquake, flood, and storm), economic activities (i.e. foreign aid and foreign direct investment) and GDP per capita income in the Philippines from 1990 to 2019. This study employed a multivariate analysis, time series regression, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The results revealed a complex relationship between GDP per capita and the regressors. In the short run, the independent variables have a negative and significant relationship with the country’s per capita income. On the contrary, only FDI has a significant long-run relationship with the economy of the Philippines. The results highlight the Philippines’ need for comprehensive disaster plans and to lessen its dependence on foreign and external factors.

A Probabilistic Model for the Distribution of GDP per Capita in NUTS 3 Zones of Europe

A macroeconomic indicator of productivity and economic development, used to obtain information on the economic and social conditions of a country, is the GDP per capita, which is also used as an indicator of social welfare. By construction it can be used directly to compare areas of interest. It is an indicator of great variability to which it is difficult to assign a probabilistic model to describe its distribution. In fact, it usually appears as a strongly asymmetric and frequently multimodal variable, which directly indicates a strong non-normality. In this work we propose to deal with the problem of finding a probabilistic model for this variable through the estimation of a model of finite mixtures of normal distributions. As an application example, we present the model obtained through the finite mixture for GDP per capita data from the NUTS 3 zones in the nomenclature of the European Union, EU countries and neighbouring countries. Thus, the model is estimated, its validity is checked and the results obtained are analysed, both for the GDP per capita variable and as a function of the countries to which the studied areas belong.

Social Security On Labor Markets to Address the Aging Population in Selected ASEAN Countries

The world is becoming older, and aging in the developing countries of the ASEAN region is unfolding faster than most developed countries in the United States and Europe. This paper examined the effectiveness of old age income security programs mandated in selected ASEAN countries. These programs sought to address the aging problem to encourage the government to promote the aging labor force's efficiency and increase labor force productivity. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of old-age dependency, increase in the life expectancy, and GDP per capita on labor force productivity using a panel data set from selected ASEAN countries from various income brackets, specifically Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, which are also classified as yellow group nations that are in the process of the demographic dividend implementation. Using the Multiple Regression Model, the researchers found out that the Old-Age Dependency Ratio positively impacts Labor Force Participation Rate. However, GDP per Capita, Life Expectancy, and the Non-contributory fund decrease the Labor Force Participation Rate.

The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Polish Banking Sector – the Household Loans Portfolio

The study aims to identify changes in non-performing household loans (NPLs) and their main determinants in the Polish banking sector for the period 2009-2021. Specifically, we look at the main determinants of creditworthiness of households which determine the possibility of repayment of principal installments and interest within the prescribed period. The results of the VECM model confirm the considerable significance of GDP per capita, gross salaries and lending rates to NPL loans of households. The results of the response function show a positive impact of GDP per capita and lending rates on NPLs and a negative impact of real salaries on NPLs. The decomposition of variance in the forecast period confirms an increased level of explanation of NPL by GDP per capita, gross salaries, and the lending rates.

Digital and economic transformations for sustainable development promotion: A case of OECD countries

Digitalization, dematerialization of production and consumption, and structural shifts in the direction of service economy forming do promote to reduction of material use and sustainable development. The paper aims to investigate the role of digital, structural, economic, and social factors in sustainable development promotion in OECD countries. The paper uses the data on digital achievements, social and economic development of OECD member states from World Bank data sources for the period 2007–2018. The random-effects GLS regression model is used, and empirical regression models to estimate the influence of key factors related to digital transformation on GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita are constructed. The results of the regression analysis show that using the number of Internet users as an indicator for achievement in digitalization has a positive and statistically significant influence on GDP per capita due to lower transaction costs and higher share service economy. An increase in urbanization rates (as an indicator of capital concentrations and labor specialization) by one percent promotes a GDP per capita increase of 299 USD. Also, an increase in Gini coefficient by one percentage point correlates with decrease in GDP per capita on 196 USD and the reduction of CO2 per capita by 0.12 tones due to the structural shifts in aggregate demand. Still, improvements in digital transformations have no significant environmental effect in OECD members, while processes related to urbanization, income inequality, and share of industrial output are important drivers for CO2 per capita reduction. AcknowledgmentsThe paper contains the results of a study conducted within the framework of research projects: “Sustainable development and resource security: from disruptive technologies to digital transformation of Ukrainian economy” (No. 0121U100470); “Fundamental bases of the phase transition to an additive economy: from disruptive technologies to institutional sociologization of decisions” (No. 0121U109557).

Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Deforestation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Ceará: analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve from panel data, 2011 to 2017

This research aims to analyze the relationship between the deforestation of the Atlantic Forest and economic activity, under the hypothesis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, considering the municipalities of the state of Ceará. For this, it is estimated a Tobit model for panel data, in the period from 2011 until 2017, considering the GDP per capita and controlling for associated factors with both deforestation and environmental protection. Unlike the expectations, the population density and cattle farming soften deforestation activity. The evidence found for the relationship between deforestation and GDP per capita rejects the “Inverted-U” hypothesis, and yes, suggests the “N” format, indicating that deforestation in the region may be cyclical. Therefore, there are no indications to ensure that the economic activity of the municipalities analyzed assure by itself the environmental protection and sustainable use of the Atlantic Forest and associated ecosystems in the state of Ceará.

Analysis on the Impact of Economic Globalization on Human Development and Economic Growth in the ASEAN-4

Economic globalization has made economies fruitful; however, a few studies argued that its impact on human development is not at par with economic growth’s advancements. With this, the effect and difference of economic globalization in terms of Trade, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) on Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita were examined among the ASEAN-4 nations, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand conjointly from 1990 to 2019. Multiple regression was used to estimate the parameters and significance of the models. Results have proved that the predictors, collectively, have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP and the HDI. However, the data showed that linear regression of GDP per capita at 51.21% has more variation than HDI at 35.95%, which could mainly be due to that human development is highly influenced by other factors such as demand political freedom and prioritization of human rights, while the preferred subset still has the three variables altogether. Yet there were sub predictors towards GDP per capita that showed a partial effect except for FDI and FDI+FPI. This might be caused by its unidirectionality and volatility in investing.