On-line static voltage security risk assessment based on Markov chain model and SVM for wind integrated power system

Author(s):  
Zhihao Yun ◽  
Qiong Zhou ◽  
Ying Feng ◽  
Donglei Sun ◽  
Jingwen Sun ◽  
...  
Processes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 900
Author(s):  
Shiwei Xia ◽  
Liangyun Song ◽  
Yi Wu ◽  
Zhoujun Ma ◽  
Jiangping Jing ◽  
...  

Large-scale wind power integrated into power grids brings serious uncertainties and risks for power system safe operation, and it is imperative to evaluate power system security risk pertinent to high-level of uncertainties. In this paper, a comprehensive source–network–load probabilistic model, representing the typical uncertainties penetrated in power generation transmission consumption portion, is firstly set for power system operation. Afterwards an integrated LHS–CD approach based on the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and Cholesky decomposition (CD) is tailored to effectively conduct the security risk assessment, in which the LHS is utilized to stratified sample the uncertainties of wind power and thermal power, transmission line outage, and load demands, while the CD part is adopted to address the correlations of uncertainties by rearranging the sampled matrix generated by LHS. Moreover, static voltage risk and transmission line overloaded risk index are properly defined for quantitatively evaluating power system operational security risk. Simulation results of a modified New England 39-bus system confirm that the proposed integrated LHS–CD approach is effective and efficient for power system security risk assessment with consideration of source–network–load demand uncertainties.


1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (12-13) ◽  
pp. 941-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ghosh-Roy ◽  
I.O. Habiballah ◽  
T.J. Stonham ◽  
M.R. Irving

2013 ◽  
Vol 860-863 ◽  
pp. 2560-2564
Author(s):  
Hong Liang Zhang

In this study, a novel prediction method for electric power demand based on markov chain model with a fuzzy probability has been developed. The model improves upon the existing prediction methods with advantages in uncertainty reflection, such as the uncertainties in electric power system which reflect the vague and ambiguous during the process of power load forecasting through allowing uncertainties expressed as fuzzy parameters and discrete intervals. The developed model is applied to predict the electric power demand of a virtual city from 2011 to 2016. Different satisfaction degrees of fuzzy parameters are considered as different levels of detail of the statistic data. The results indicate that the model can reflect the high uncertainty of long term power demand, which could support the programming and management of power system.


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