This study estimates the impact of major road supply on individual travel time expenditures (TTEs) using data that cover 30-year variations in transportation infrastructure and travel behavior. The impacts of the supply of road and rail infrastructure are estimated with a data set that combines records of large-scale household travel surveys in the Tokyo metropolitan area conducted in 1978, 1988, 1998, and 2008. Linear and Tobit models of individual TTEs are estimated by following the behavior of birth cohorts over the 30-year period. The models incorporate the changes in transportation infrastructure, measured as lane kilometers of two levels of major road stock and vehicle kilometers of urban rail service. The results show significant negative effects of lane kilometers for higher-level and lower-level major roads on the TTEs for all travel purposes and for commuting, after controlling for socioeconomic backgrounds and generations of individuals. This study discusses that, in Tokyo, the estimated effect is more likely to reflect the effect of a major road network per se on individual TTEs than the (indirect) effect of major road supply on individual TTEs working through land development activities (i.e., induced car travel demand). For example, the caveat is that actual road investment decisions still need to consider the induced component of road traffic in addition to the (direct) effect that is estimated in this study.
Artificial Neural Network for Transportation Infrastructure Systems