Abstract
BackgroundPopulation trends in PSA screening and prostate cancer incidence do not perfectly correspond. We aimed to better understand relationships between trends in PSA screening, prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Australia.MethodsDescription of age standardised time trends in PSA tests, prostate biopsies, cancer incidence and mortality within Australia for the age groups: 45-74, 75-84, and 85+ years.ResultsPSA testing increased from its introduction in 1989 to a peak in 2008. It then declined in men aged 45-84 years. Prostate biopsies and cancer incidence declined from 1995 to 2000, in parallel with decrease in trans-urethral resections of prostate (TURP). After 2000, changes in biopsies and cancer incidence paralleled PSA screening in men 45-84 years, while in men ≥85 years, biopsies stabilised and incidence declined. More recently a reduction in TURP correlated with increased Dutasteride and Tamsulosin usage. Prostate cancer mortality in men aged 45-74 years remained low throughout. Mortality in men 75-84 years gradually increased until the mid 1990s, then gradually decreased. Mortality in men ≥85 years increased until the mid 1990s, then stabilised.ConclusionsAge specific prostate cancer incidence largely mirrors PSA screening rates. Most deviation may be explained by changes in management of benign prostatic disease and incidental cancer detection. The timing of the small mortality reduction in men 75-84 years is more consistent with benefits from advances in treatment than with early detection through PSA. The large increases in prostate cancer incidence with minimal changes in mortality suggest overdiagnosis.
Overdiagnosis Due to Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening: Lessons From U.S. Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends