Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components*†

2003 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 531-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
H. J. Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Test List ◽  
Structural Data ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Design Loads

The robust estimation of wind turbine design loads for service lifetimes of 30 to 50 years that are based on limited field measurements is a challenging problem. Estimating the long-term load distribution involves the integration of conditional distributions of extreme loads over the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity distributions. However, the accuracy of the statistical extrapolation can be sensitive to both model and sampling errors. Using measured inflow and structural data from the Long Term Inflow and Structural Test (LIST) program, this paper presents a comparative assessment of extreme loads using three distributions: namely, the Gumbel, Weibull and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The paper uses L-moments, in place of traditional product moments, with the purpose of reducing the sampling error. The paper discusses the effects of modeling and sampling errors and highlights the practical limitations of extreme value theory.

Probabilistic Analysis of List Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
H. J. Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Structural Data ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Mean Wind Speed ◽  
Design Loads

Robust estimation of wind turbine design loads for service lifetimes of 30 to 50 years that are based on field measurements of a few days is a challenging problem. Estimating the long-term load distribution involves the integration of conditional distributions of extreme loads over the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity distributions. However, the accuracy of the statistical extrapolation is fairly sensitive to both model and sampling errors. Using measured inflow and structural data from the LIST program, this paper presents a comparative assessment of extreme loads using three distributions: namely, the Gumbel, Weibull and Generalized Extreme Value distributions. The paper uses L-moments, in place of traditional product moments, to reduce the sampling error. The paper discusses the application of extreme value theory and highlights its practical limitations. The proposed technique has the potential of improving estimates of the design loads for wind turbines.

Long-Term Extreme Load Prediction of Spar and Semisubmersible Floating Wind Turbines Using the Environmental Contour Method

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Karmakar ◽  
Hasan Bagbanci ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Contour Method ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Floating Wind Turbine ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Offshore Floating Wind Turbine

The prediction of extreme loads for the offshore floating wind turbine is analyzed based on the inverse reliability technique. The inverse reliability approach is in general used to establish the design levels associated with the specified probability of failure. The present study is performed using the environmental contour (EC) method to estimate the long-term joint probability distribution of extreme loads for different types of offshore floating wind turbines. The analysis is carried out in order to predict the out-of-plane bending moment (OoPBM) loads at the blade root and tower base moment (TBM) loads for a 5 MW offshore floating wind turbine of different floater configuration. The spar-type and semisubmersible type offshore floating wind turbines are considered for the analysis. The FAST code is used to simulate the wind conditions for various return periods and the design loads of various floating wind turbine configurations. The extreme and operation situation of the spar-type and semisubmersible type offshore floating wind turbine are analyzed using one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D)-EC methods for different return periods. The study is useful to predict long-term design loads for offshore wind turbines without requiring excessive computational effort.

Simulation of Offshore Wind Turbine Response for Extreme Limit States

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Agarwal ◽  
L. Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Response Variability ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Turbine ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Conditional Response ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Design Loads

When interest is in estimating long-term design loads for an offshore wind turbine using simulation, statistical extrapolation is the method of choice. While the method itself is rather well-established, simulation effort can be intractable if uncertainty in predicted extreme loads and efficiency in the selected extrapolation procedure are not specifically addressed. Our aim in this study is to address these questions in predicting blade and tower extreme loads based on stochastic response simulations of a 5 MW offshore turbine. We illustrate the use of the peak-over-threshold method to predict long-term extreme loads. To derive these long-term loads, we employ an efficient inverse reliability approach which is shown to predict reasonably accurate long-term loads when compared to the more expensive direct integration of conditional load distributions for different environmental (wind and wave) conditions. Fundamental to the inverse reliability approach is the issue of whether turbine response variability conditional on environmental conditions is modeled in detail or whether only gross conditional statistics of this conditional response are included. We derive design loads for both these cases, and demonstrate that careful inclusion of response variability not only greatly influences long-term design load predictions but it also identifies different design environmental conditions that bring about these long-term loads compared to when response variability is only approximately modeled. As we shall see, for this turbine, a major source of response variability for both the blade and tower arises from blade pitch control actions due to which a large number of simulations is required to obtain stable distribution tails for the turbine loads studied.

Empirical Wind Turbine Load Distributions Using Field Data

2008 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Puneet Agarwal ◽  
Lance Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Load Distributions ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Summary Data

In the design of land-based or offshore wind turbines for ultimate limit states, long-term loads associated with return periods on the order of the service life (20years, usually) must be estimated. This requires statistical extrapolation from turbine load data that may be obtained by simulation or by field tests. The present study illustrates such extrapolation that uses field data from the Blyth offshore wind farm in the United Kingdom, where a 2MW wind turbine was instrumented, and environment and load data were recorded. From this measurement campaign, the load data available are in two different formats: as 10min statistics (referred to as “summary” data) or as full time series (referred to as “campaign” data). The characteristics of the site and environment and, hence, that of the turbine response are strikingly different for winds from the sea and winds from the shore. The load data (here, only the mudline bending moment is studied) at the Blyth site are hence separated depending on wind regime. By integrating load distributions conditional on the environment with the relative likelihood of the different environmental conditions, long-term loads associated with specified return periods can be derived. This is achieved here using the peak-over-threshold method based on campaign data but long-term loads are compared with similar estimates based on the summary data. Winds from the shore are seen to govern the long-term loads at the site. Though the influence of wave heights on turbine long-term loads is smaller than that of wind speed, there is possible resonance of tower dynamics induced by the waves; still, to first order, it is largely the wind speed and turbulence intensity that control design loads. Predicted design loads based on the campaign data are close to those based on the summary data discussed in a separate study.

Inflow and the Fatigue of the LIST Wind Turbine

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert J. Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Test List ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Structural Data ◽  
Reynolds Stresses ◽  
Load Spectrum ◽  
Fatigue Load ◽  
Obukhov Length ◽  
Fatigue Loads

The Long-term Inflow and Structural Test (LIST) program is collecting long-term, continuous inflow and structural response data to characterize the spectrum of loads on wind turbines. A heavily instrumented Micon 65/13M turbine with SERI 8m blades is being used as the primary test turbine for this test. This turbine is located in Bushland, TX, a test site that exposes the turbine to a wind regime representative of a Great Plains commercial site. The turbine and inflow are being characterized with 60 measurements: 34 to characterize the inflow, 19 to characterize structural response, and 7 to characterize the time-varying state of the turbine. In this paper, the inflow and structural data from this measurement campaign are analyzed to determine the correlation of various inflow descriptors with fatigue loads. The inflow is described by various parameters, including the mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the wind speed, turbulence intensity, turbulence length scales, Reynolds stresses, local friction velocity, Obukhov length and the gradient Richardson number. The fatigue load spectrum corresponding to these parameters is characterized as an equivalent fatigue load. A regression analysis is then used to determine which parameters are correlated to the fatigue loads. The results illustrate that the vertical component of the inflow is the most important of the secondary inflow parameters on fatigue loads. Long-term fatigue spectra illustrate that extrapolation of relatively short-term data to longer times is consistent for the data reported here.

Mode-decomposing Analysis of the Extreme Load in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Using Extreme Value Theory

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 136-147
Author(s):  
Jian Zhou ◽  
Jixin Wang ◽  
Hongbin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽  
Hybrid Electric Vehicles ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
New Thought ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Hybrid Electric

In a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the hybrid system, which is equipped with an engine and a motor, is a key component. However, given the multimode characteristics of HEV, the original extreme load of the engine or motor is not independent and the random variables cannot be directly fitted by the extreme value theory (EVT). Thus, this paper proposes a mode-decomposing application method (MDAM) using EVT. Based on the method, three typical distributions, including the Fréchet distribution, the Gumbel distribution, and the Weibull distribution, were combined as a unified expression, and it was adopted to fit the extreme loads within different modes of HEV. By comparing the fitting results, especially the shapes of the curves, the distributions of the load under different modes vary from each other, so the feasibility and necessity of MDAM in HEV are proved, and a new thought for fitting the extreme load in HEV is provided, which will contribute to improve the fitting accuracy.

Empirical Wind Turbine Load Distributions Using Field Data

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Agarwal ◽  
L. Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Load Distributions ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Summary Data

In the design of land-based or offshore wind turbines for ultimate limit states, long-term loads associated with return periods on the order of the service life (20 years, usually) must be estimated. This requires statistical extrapolation from turbine loads data that may be obtained by simulation or by field tests. The present study illustrates such extrapolation that uses field data from the Blyth offshore wind farm in the United Kingdom, where a 2MW wind turbine was instrumented, and environment and loads data were recorded. From this measurement campaign, the loads data available are in two different formats: as ten-minute statistics (referred to as “summary” data) and as full time series (referred to as “campaign” data). The characteristics of the site and environment and, hence, of the turbine response as well are strikingly different for wind regimes associated with onshore winds (winds from sea to land) and offshore winds (those from land to sea). The loads data (here, only the mudline bending moment is studied) at the Blyth site are hence separated depending on wind regime. By integrating load distributions conditional on the environment with the relative likelihood of the different environmental conditions, long-term loads associated with specified return periods can be derived. This is achieved here using the peak-over-threshold method based on campaign data but derived long-term loads are compared with similar estimates based on the summary data. Offshore winds are seen to govern the long-term loads at the site. Though the influence of wave heights on turbine long-term loads is smaller than that of wind speed, there is possible resonance of tower dynamics induced by the waves; still, to first order, it is largely the wind speed and turbulence intensity that control the design loads. Predicted design loads based on the campaign data are close to those based on the summary data discussed in a separate study.

The Influence of the Joint Wind-Wave Environment on Offshore Wind Turbine Support Structure Loads

2008 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Puneet Agarwal ◽  
Lance Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Turbines ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Wind Regimes

Our objective here is to establish long-term loads for offshore wind turbines using a probabilistic approach. This can enable one to estimate design loads for a prescribed level of return period, generally on the order of 20–50years for offshore wind turbines. In a probabilistic approach, one first needs to establish “short-term” distributions of the load random variable(s) conditional on the environment; this is achieved either by using simulation or field measurements. In the present study, we use field data from the Blyth offshore wind farm in the United Kingdom, where a 2MW wind turbine was instrumented, and environment and load data were recorded. The characteristics of the environment and, hence, that of the turbine response at the site are strikingly different for wind regimes associated with different wind directions. Here, we study the influence of such contrasting environmental (wind) regimes and associated waves on long-term design loads. The field data, available as summary statistics, are limited in the sense that not all combinations of environmental conditions likely to be experienced by the turbine over its service life are represented in the measurements. Using the available data, we show how distributions for random variables describing the environment (i.e., wind and waves) and the turbine load of interest (i.e., the mudline bending moment) can be established. By integrating load distributions, conditional on the environment with the relative likelihood of different environmental conditions, long-term (extreme/ultimate) loads associated with specified return periods can be derived. This is demonstrated here by carefully separating out the data in different wind direction sectors that reflect contrasting wind (and accompanying wave) characteristics in the ocean environment. Since the field data are limited, the derived long-term design loads have inherent uncertainty associated with them; we investigate this uncertainty in such derived loads using bootstrap techniques.

Predicting Design Wind Turbine Loads from Limited Data: Comparing Random Process and Random Peak Models

2001 ◽  
Vol 123 (4) ◽  
pp. 364-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
LeRoy M. Fitzwater ◽  
Steven R. Winterstein
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Bending Loads ◽  
Turbine Design ◽  
Peak Model

This paper considers two distinct topics that arise in reliability-based wind turbine design. First, it illustrates how general probability models can be used to predict long-term design loads from a set of limited-duration, short-term load histories. Second, it considers in detail the precise choice of probability model to be adopted, for both flap and edge bending loads in both parked and operating turbine conditions. In particular, a 3-moment random peak model and a 3- or 4-moment random process model are applied and compared. For a parked turbine, all models are found to be virtually unbiased and to notably reduce uncertainty in estimating extreme loads (e.g., by roughly 50%). For an operating turbine, however, only the random peak model is found to retain these beneficial features. This suggests the advantage of the random peak model, which appears to capture the rotating blade behavior sufficiently well to accurately predict extremes.

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