<p>Noctilucent clouds are often cited as potential indicators of climate change in the middle<br>atmosphere. They owe their existence to the very cold summer mesopause region (~130K) at mid<br>and high latitudes. We analyze trends derived from the Leibniz-Institute Middle Atmosphere<br>Model (LIMA) and the MIMAS ice particle model (Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport model)<br>for the years 1871-2008 and for middle, high and arctic latitudes, respectively.<br>Model runs with and without an increase of carbon dioxide and water vapor (from methane oxidation)<br>concentration are performed. Trends are most prominent after ~1960 when the increase of both<br>carbon dioxide and water vapor accelerates. Negative trends of (geometric) NLC altitudes are primarily<br>due to cooling below NLC altitudes caused by carbon dioxide increase. Increases of ice particle<br>radii and NLC brightness with time are mainly caused by an enhancement of water vapor.<br>Several ice layer and background parameter trends are similar at high and arctic latitudes but are<br>substantially different at middle latitudes. This concerns, for example, occurrence rates, ice water<br>content (IWC), and number of ice particles in a column. Considering the time period after 1960,<br>geometric altitudes of NLC decrease by approximately 260m per decade, and brightness increases by<br>roughly 50% (1960-2008), independent of latitude. NLC altitudes decrease by approximately 15-20m<br>per increase of carbon dioxide by 1ppmv. The number of ice particles in a column and also at the<br>altitude of maximum backscatter is nearly constant with time. At all latitudes, yearly mean NLC<br>appear at altitudes where temperatures are close to 145+/-1K. Ice particles are present nearly<br>all the time at high and arctic latitudes, but are much less common at middle latitudes. Ice water<br>content and maximum backscatter are highly correlated, where the slope depends on latitude. This<br>allows to combine data sets from satellites and lidars. Furthermore, IWC and the concentration of<br>water vapor at the altitude of maximum backscatter are also strongly correlated. Results from<br>LIMA/MIMAS agree nicely with observations.</p>
Stratospheric and mesospheric latitudinal water vapor distributions obtained by an airborne millimeter-wave spectrometer
