scholarly journals Decadal and multi-year predictability of the West African monsoon and the role of dynamical downscaling

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Paeth ◽  
Andreas Paxian ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Hans-Jürgen Panitz ◽  
...  
2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (6) ◽  
pp. 2890-2912 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Birch ◽  
D. J. Parker ◽  
J. H. Marsham ◽  
D. Copsey ◽  
L. Garcia-Carreras

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 965-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanouil Flaounas ◽  
Serge Janicot ◽  
Sophie Bastin ◽  
Rémy Roca ◽  
Elsa Mohino

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (9) ◽  
pp. 1843-1849 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Nick S. Dixon ◽  
Luis Garcia-Carreras ◽  
Grenville M. S. Lister ◽  
Douglas J. Parker ◽  
...  

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (8) ◽  
pp. 2765-2782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Peyrillé ◽  
Jean-Philippe Lafore ◽  
Jean-Luc Redelsperger

An idealized vertical–meridional zonally symmetric model is developed in order to recover a July typical monsoon regime over West Africa in response to surface conditions. The model includes a parameterization to account for heat and momentum fluxes associated with eddies. The sensitivity of the simulated West African monsoon equilibrium regime to some major processes is explored. It allows confirmation of the important role played by the sun’s latitudinal position, the aerosols, the albedo, and the SST’s magnitude in the Gulf of Guinea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The important role of aerosols in warming the Saharan lower layers and their effect on the whole monsoon is underlined. Model results also stress the importance of the Mediterranean Sea, which is needed to obtain the extreme dryness of the Sahara. The use of this idealized model is finally discussed for studying the scale interactions and coupling involved in the West African monsoon as explored in a companion paper.


2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1571-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Caroline L. Bain ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker

Abstract Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. While local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. A potential use of local onset regions is presented that shows the link between the annual intertropical front progression and local agronomic onset.


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