The study employs a real options approach that doesn’t need to capture all the uncertainty and proposes a process that directly determines the uncertainty associated with the first period. The results support that its use can be considered fair. However, it shows that long periods of operation and poor adhesion to the geometric Brownian motion by the project returns might call into question its use in the energy market. The values for option pricing have remained inside acceptable ranges, but some shortfalls could be found. First, the study employs Monte Carlo simulations, which can be viewed as forward-looking processes, and option pricing problems need backward recursive solutions. Second, the study shows that its simplicity produces results as accurate as those gathered from approaches with added complexity and computational needs.
Efficient Hierarchical Approximation of High‐Dimensional Option Pricing Problems
