The Predictability and Profitability of Simple Moving Averages and Trading Range Breakout Rules in the Pakistan Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050001
Author(s):  
Salma Khand ◽  
Vivake Anand ◽  
Mohammad Nadeem Qureshi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Fixed Length

This paper inspects whether variable- and fixed-length moving averages (VMA and FMA), and trading range breakout (TRB) rules have prognostic capability and can earn profits superior to buy-and-hold plan, when applied on KSE-100 index of Pakistan stock market during the full sample period January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2013. Full sample results provided empirical evidence for VMA rule that it has significant predictive power and is able to generate profits superior to simple buy-and-hold plan even after inclusion of transaction costs. The highest mean buy returns yielded by VMA, FMA and TRB rules are seen in noncrises periods. The overall implication of this study is that traders in the Pakistan stock market can utilize this information to obtain excess returns on a regular basis.

Is Technical Analysis Profitable even for an Amateur Investor?

2015 ◽  
pp. 255-269
Author(s):  
Vasileiou Evangelos
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Trading Decisions ◽  
Transaction Fees

The purpose of this chapter is to examine if even the simplest trading rules could take advantage of the market's inefficiency and lead to profitable trading decisions. For this reason, this study examined the profitability of the simplest trading rules, using only the simple moving averages (SMA) rules that even an amateur investor could apply. In order to examine the specific issue a data sample from the Greek stock market during the period 2002-12 was used. The results suggest that even if one takes into account the most expensive transaction fees, the trading rules signal profitable investment decisions; therefore, even an amateur trader and/or investor who does not have a significant amount of money to invest (which may lead to reduced transaction costs) could take advantage of the market's inefficiency. Behavioral finance theories may provide some useful and alternative explanations regarding some of the reasons that contribute to the Greek stock market's inefficient environment.

scholarly journals Did the Stock Market Regime Change after the Inauguration of the New Cabinet in Japan?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 98
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Markov Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Market Regime

This paper explored whether the Japanese stock market regime changed after the inauguration of the new Abe cabinet in Japan. Our application of Markov switching models to the Japanese stock price index returns and examinations of the price spreads in terms of the Japanese stock price indices derive the following evidence. First, (1) after the Abe cabinet started, regime of the Japanese stock markets changed. Second, (2) the regimes as to the JASDAQ Index and Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Mothers Index more strongly and earlier changed than that of TOPIX. Third, (3) in our full sample period from January 4, 2011 to March 20, 2014, average positive price spreads over TOPIX were observed as to the JASDAQ, TSE Mothers, TOPIX Small, and TSE Second Section Index.

COVID-19 pandemic sentiment and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Byomakesh Debata ◽  
Kshitish Ghate ◽  
Jayashree Renganathan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Behavior ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Google Search

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between pandemic sentiment (PS) and stock market returns in an emerging order-driven stock market like India.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses nonlinear causality and wavelet coherence techniques to analyze the sentiment-returns nexus. The analysis is conducted on the full sample period from January to December 2020 and further extended to two subperiods from January to June and July to December to investigate whether the associations between sentiment and market returns persist even several months after the outbreak.FindingsThis study constructs two novel measures of PS: one using Google Search Volume Intensity and the other using Textual Analysis of newspaper headlines. The empirical findings suggest a high degree of interrelationship between PS and stock returns in all time-frequency domains across the full sample period. This interrelationship is found to be further heightened during the initial months of the crisis but reduces significantly during the later months. This could be because a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the crisis is already accounted for and priced into the markets in the initial months.Originality/valueThe ongoing coronavirus pandemic has resulted in sharp volatility and frequent crashes in the global equity indices. This study is an endeavor to shed light on the ongoing debate on the COVID-19 pandemic, investors’ sentiment and stock market behavior.

scholarly journals Dynamic Return-Volume Relations in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence from Quantiles Regressions

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Othman Alwagdani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Post Market ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Returns Forecasting

This paper examines the causality patterns between the lagged trading volume and returns of the Saudi stock market (TASI) for the period from2003:01 to April 2013:05, along with two consecutive sub-periods to account for pre- and post- market collapse of 2006. Using the quantile regression approach, the study finds that the return-volume relations are heterogeneous across quantiles with symmetric tendency across the mean for the full sample period. On the contrary, the study could not support the heterogeneous and symmetric effects for the first sub-sample period. The second sub-sample period is characterized by homogenous across quantiles with statistical evidence of symmetry. Thus, the study concludes that the dependence structure between the lagged volume and subsequent market returns seems to be randomly relying on the chosen period which makes volume unsuitable to be used as explanatory power for returns forecasting.

scholarly journals An Overview of Stock Portfolio Returns and Return Premia in Japan: The Case of Size and Book-to-Market Portfolios

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Size Effect ◽  
Size Effects ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Value Effect ◽  
Stock Portfolio

This article explores Japanese stock portfolio returns and return premia by focusing on size- and book-to-market (BM)-sorted portfolios over the period of 1990 to 2020. As a result of our investigations, we derive the following useful findings. (1) In general, the value and/or size effects are continuously seen in the Japanese stock market. However, (2) these effects much depend on the economic and business background: for the performance of size- and BM-sorted portfolios in Japan, the value effect is stronger in some sub-periods; while the size effect is clearer in other sub-periods. Furthermore, (3) this study employs the data in US dollars, and computes various statistics and measures for both our full sample period and many different sub-periods, whose economic circumstances are rather different. Therefore, not only for academic researchers but also for international investors, our findings shall be highly beneficial for enriching the understanding of Japanese stock portfolio returns and return premia.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Pandemic and Herding Behaviour: Evidence from India’s Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 366-390
Author(s):  
Rosy Dhall ◽  
Bhanwar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Outbreak Period

This article examines the herding behaviour at the industry level from national stock exchange (NSE). The novel contribution of this article is to examine the herding behaviour during the whole, pre- and post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak period. We deployed the popular model proposed by Chang et al. (2000) to examine herd formation. Using daily stock closing prices of 191 firms, which constitute the 12 industry indices for the period from 1 January 2015 to 1 June 2020, the results for the full sample period (1 January 2015 to 1 June 2020) and before COVID-19 outbreak period (1 January 2015 to 29 January 2020) indicate the non-existence of herding formation at the industry level, but they do suggest a strong evidence of anti-herding behaviour. In addition, during the bull and bear market conditions, we found evidence of herding behaviour during the post-COVID-19 outbreak period (1 January 2020 to 1 June 2020). Further, the findings suggest that COVID-19 pandemic caused the formation of herding behaviour at the industry level. The study facilitates investors to devise their trading strategies in the regime of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Are Moving Average Trading Rules Profitable? Evidence From The Mexican Stock Market

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Massoud Metghalchi ◽  
Xavier Garza-Gomez ◽  
Yong Glasure ◽  
Yung-Ho Chang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Trading Costs ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Technical Trading ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Price Patterns

<p class="MsoBodyText2" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">This paper tests three moving average technical trading rules for the Mexican Stock Market. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">Results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and can discern recurring-price patterns for profitable trading and support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. Break-even one-way trading costs are estimated to be</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"><strong> </strong></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">in the range of 1% to 3% over the period under consideration. These break-even costs, we believe, are large compared to recent estimates of actual trading costs, implying that moving average trading rules have predictive power and can generate consistent profits even after transaction costs are considered. </span></span></p>

Momentum Effect in Stock Market: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahid Rasheed ◽  
Umar Saood ◽  
Waqar Alam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Using Data

This study aims to examine the momentum effect presence in selected stocks of Pakistan stock market using data from Jan 2007 to Dec 2016. This study constructed the strategies includes docile, equal weighted and full rebalancing techniques. Data was extracted from the PSX – 100 index ranging from 2007 to 2016. STATA coding ASM software was used for calculating momentum portfolios, finally top 25 stocks were considered as a winner stocks and bottom 25 stocks were taken as a loser stocks. In conclusion, the results of the study found a strong momentum effect in Pakistan stock exchange PSX 100- index. As by results it has been observed that a substantial profit can earn by the investors or brokers in constructing a portfolio with a short formation period of three months and hold for 3, 6 and 12 months. There is hardly a study is present on the same topic on Pakistan Stock Exchange as preceding studies were only conducted on individual stock markets before merger of stock markets in Pakistan while this study leads the explanation of momentum phenomenon in new dimension i.e. Pakistan Stock Exchange. Keywords: Momentum, Portfolio, Winner Stocks, Loser Stocks

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document