The 2021 Bitcoin Bubbles and Crashes—Detection and Classification

In this study, the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model is adopted for real-time identification and monitoring of Bitcoin bubbles and crashes using different time scale data, and the modified Lagrange regularization method is proposed to alleviate the impact of potential LPPLS model over-fitting to better estimate bubble start time and market regime change. The goal here is to determine the nature of the bubbles and crashes (i.e., whether they are endogenous due to their own price evolution or exogenous due to external market and/or policy influences). A systematic market event analysis is performed and correlated to the Bitcoin bubbles detected. Based on the daily LPPLS confidence indictor from 1 December 1, 2019 to 24 June 2021, this analysis has disclosed that the Bitcoin boom from November 2020 to mid-January 2021 is an endogenous bubble, stemming from the self-reinforcement of cooperative herding and imitative behaviors of market players, while the price spike from mid-January 2021 to mid-April 2021 is likely an exogenous bubble driven by extrinsic events including a series of large-scale acquisitions and adoptions by well-known institutions such as Visa and Tesla. Finally, the utilities of multi-resolution LPPLS analysis in revealing both short-term changes and long-term states have also been demonstrated in this study.

Equity Risk and Return across Hidden Market Regimes

The key to understanding the dynamics of stock markets, particularly the mechanisms of their changes, is in the concept of the market regime. It is regarded as a regular transition from one state to another. Although the market agenda is never the same, its functioning regime allows us to reveal the logic of its development. The article employs the concept of financial turbulence to identify hidden market regimes. These are revealed through the ratio of the components, which describe single changes of correlated risks and volatility. The combinations of typical and atypical variates of correlational and magnitude components of financial turbulence allowed four hidden regimes to be revealed. These were arranged by the degree of financial turbulence, conceptually analyzed and assessed from the perspective of their duration. The empirical data demonstrated ETF day trading profits for S&P 500 sectors, covering the period of January 1998–August 2020, as well as day trade profits of the Russian blue chips within the period of October 2006–February 2021. The results show a significant difference in regard to the market performance and volatility, which depend on hidden regimes. Both sample data groups demonstrated similar contemporaneous and lagged effects, which allows the prediction of volatility jumps in the periods following atypical correlations.

Religious change in Orthodox-majority Eastern Europe: from Nation-State to Global-Market

This article mobilises an analytical framework developed by the author in a series of solo and joint publications according to which religion has shifted from a Nation-State to a Global-Market regime, which it applies to the case of Eastern European Orthodox majority countries, including Russia, in modern times. Bringing together a large amount of research in a synthetic objective, it first examines how religion in Eastern Europe was nationalised and statised from the end of the eighteenth to the twentieth century. It looks at the particularities of the communist experience, and shows how it is best understood as a form of radicalisation of National-Statist trends. It then shows how neoliberal reforms have integrated these countries in wider global flows. The remainder of the article looks at different trends from the perspective of marketisation: the coextensive rise of Orthodoxy affiliation and nationalism, the qualitative changes within Orthodoxy, as well as the parallel developments of New Age derived spirituality and Pentecostalism, the two ideal-typical religious forms in the Global-Market regime, and by linking them to specific experiences of globalisation and social determinants. The conclusion argues that the rise of nationalism and authoritarianism as well as the religious trends that are developing today are the consequences of neoliberal reforms, the penetration of consumerism as a dominant ethos, and thus generalised marketisation.

The Role of Collaboration in Complying With COVID-19 Health Protective Behaviors: A Cross-National Study

On March 11, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. As the virus spread, governments called on citizens to comply with handwashing and social distancing behaviors. We use survey data from Finland and the United States to examine whether collaborative dimensions help predict compliance with health protective behaviors related to combatting COVID-19. We also investigate whether these factors’ influence on compliance varies between a market regime such as the United States and a more statist regime such as Finland. Our findings provide important insight for public administrators in crafting messages to the public that emphasize citizens’ collaborative role in combatting a pandemic.

Investigating the Dynamics of Exchange Traded Funds Across the Bear and Bull Markets: Evidence from Indian Equity ETFs

The present study attempts to examine the tracking ability of Indian equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) across the bearish and bullish market regimes. Also, ETFs’ sensitivity to their respective underlying indices across the two market conditions is examined so as to gain an insight into the differences in risk exposure under the two regimes using DBM. The results found that the tracking error (TE) of ETFs varies across the two market regimes with it higher during the bullish regime. At the same time, ETFs’ responsiveness to their underlying indices is found to be higher during the bearish market regime, which justifies the existence of lower TE during the bearish regime. NIFTYBEES, KOTAKNIFTY and BANKBEES emerged to be the top three performers in terms of tracking efficiency. Further, NIFTYBEES, BANKBEES and JUNIORBEES are reported to provide significantly positive excess returns during the bullish regime. As such, investors considering investment in equity ETFs can opt for the top performing funds where they also stand a chance to earn excess return (in few cases). Also, it is observed the beta coefficients of ETFs varied significantly from unity. It suggests that the ETFs and their respective underlying indices are not subject to similar systematic risk.

Covid-19 and border restriction policies: the dilemma of trans-border truck drivers in East Africa

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the challenges that were faced by trans-border truck drivers within the East African Community as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and its management protocols. Research methodology: While adopting the qualitative research method, this paper has used documents including documented interviews and virtual sources for its data. The data have been analyzed using qualitative content analysis through which themes have been generated for discussions. Results: The EAC member countries should continue to harmonize their health standardization to enable them to enjoy the pursuit and use of OSBP even during pandemics. Limitations: This paper, however, is limited to the long-distance truck drivers and the management of Covid-19 within the East African Community and does not cover other aspects of Coordinated Border Management in the region. Contribution: It provides valuable contributions to the need for harmonization and standardization of operations and health measures within the community as a long-term solution to the challenges of coordinated border management within the community in the face of future pandemics and readiness for the single market regime. Keywords: Truckers, Coordinated border management, Covid-19, East African Community, Relay driving

Stock Returns and Valuation Ratios at Sector Level in South Africa: The Regime-switch Modelling Approach

There is mounting evidence of stock return predictability based on valuation ratios across various stock markets. Most studies in this regard assume that the link between stock returns and valuation ratios is constant and linear. Yet, return predictability may vary according to the prevailing market regime. Accordingly, this study investigated whether the dividend and price-earnings valuation ratios predict returns on six sector indices on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and whether that predictability is dependent on the prevailing market regime. The study employed a Markov regime-switching model over a sample period spanning from 1996:01 to 2018:12. The results showed that in most sectors, predictability was present, and its significance was dependent on whether the market was in a bullish or bearish regime. These findings are useful to investors who use valuation ratios to predict returns and adjust portfolios in various sectors across different market regimes on the South African market.

Farming efficiency, cropland rental market and income effect: evidence from panel data for rural Central Vietnam

Understanding the drivers and income effects of land rental markets is important to facilitate agricultural transformation. This study uses a panel dataset of rural households in Vietnam to examine the efficiency, equity and income effects of land rental markets. Probit and tobit models find that land is transferred from less to more efficient farmers and thus removing administrative barriers to the market operation is suggested. However, instrumental variable and quantile regressions show that the poor do not benefit significantly from participation in the markets. This highlights the need to take care of the poor to ensure that they are not left behind. Further analysis might focus on the efficiency thresholds that farmers switch from a market regime to another.