NATURAL HISTORY OF CIRRHOSIS: CHANGING TRENDS IN ETIOLOGY OVER THE YEARS

Background and goals: The aims of the present study were to investigate the natural history of cirrhosis and to determine trends in the etiology of cirrhosis. Methods: Between January 2001 and January 2018, a total of 1341 patients had been diagnosed with cirrhosis were included. Results: A total of 898 cirrhotic patients, who were followed for at least six months were included into the analysis. The median age was 54 years. The median Child-Pugh and MELD scores were 7.5 and 11, respectively. Ascites (51%) was the most common causes of decompensation. Chronic viral hepatitis was the most frequent cause of cirrhosis (58%). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection was the main etiology (34%), followed by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (18%). Among 129 patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (CC), 60 had metabolic abnormalities. If these 60 patients with CC were considered to have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related cirrhosis, the proportion of NAFLD-related cirrhosis increased from 1.8% to 8.0%. At admission, 74 patients (8%) had been diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A new HCC developed in 80 patients during the follow-up period. The probability of developing HCC was 3.9% at 12 months. Logistic regression analysis showed that the development of HCC was significantly associated with older age (p<0.001), male gender (p<0.001), viral etiology (p=0.026) and baseline high aspartate aminotransferase level (p=0.01). Overall, 104 cirrhotic patients died. In conclusion: HBV and HCV remain the leading causes of etiology in cirrhosis and HCC. However, NAFLD-related cirrhosis is recognized is recognized as a growing burden.