Abstract 223: Non-Cardiac Comorbidities in Predictive Models for Valvular Heart Disease Interventions
Background: Interventions for patients with valvular heart disease (VHD) now include both surgical and percutaneous procedures. As a result, treatments are being offered to increasingly complex patients with a significant burden of non-cardiac comorbid conditions. There is a major gap in our understanding of how various comorbidities relate to prognosis following interventions for VHD. Here we describe how comorbidities are handled in clinical predictive models for patients undergoing interventions for VHD. Methods: We queried the Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Clinical Prediction Model (CPM) Registry to identify de novo CPMs for patients undergoing VHD interventions. We systematically extracted information on the non-cardiac comorbidities contained in the CPMs and also measures of model performance. Results: From January 1990- May 2012 there were 12 CPMs predicting measures of morbidity or mortality for patients undergoing interventions for VHD. There were 2 CPMs predicting outcomes for isolated aortic valve replacement, 3 CPMs predicting outcomes for isolated mitral valve surgery, and 7 models predicting outcomes for a combination of valve surgery subtypes. Ten out of twelve (83%) of the CPMs for patients undergoing interventions for VHD predicted mortality. The median number of non-cardiac comorbidities included in the CPMs was 4 (range 0-7). All of the CPMs predicting mortality included at least 1 comorbid condition. The top 3 most common comorbidities included in these CPMs were, renal dysfunction (10/12, 83%), prior CVA (7/12, 58%) and measures of BMI/BSA (7/12, 58%). Diabetes was present in only 25% (3/12) of the models and chronic lung disease in only 17% (2/12). Conclusions: Non-cardiac comorbidities are frequently found in CPMs predicting morbidity and mortality following interventions for VHD. There is significant variation in the number and type of specific comorbid conditions included in these CPMs. More work is needed to understand the directionality, magnitude, and consistency of effect of these non-cardiac comorbid conditions for patients undergoing interventions for VHD.