Long-Term Demand Forecasting Using Agent-Based Model : Application on Automotive Spare Parts

Renewable energy resources and energy-efficient technologies, as well as building retrofitting, are only some of the possible strategies that can achieve more sustainable cities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies and incentives are often provided by governments to increase the number of people adopting these sustainable energy efficiency actions. However, actual sales of green products are currently not as high as would be desired. The present paper applies a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to simulate a complex socio-economic-architectural adaptive system to study the temporal diffusion and the willingness of inhabitants to adopt photovoltaic (PV) systems. The San Salvario neighborhood in Turin (Italy) is used as an exemplary case study for testing consumer behavior associated with this technology, integrating social network theories, opinion formation dynamics and an adaptation of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Data/characteristics for both buildings and people are explicitly spatialized with the level of detail at the block scale. Particular attention is given to the comparison of the policy mix for supporting decision-makers and policymakers in the definition of the most efficient strategies for achieving a long-term vision of sustainable development. Both variables and outcomes accuracy of the model are validated with historical real-world data.

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Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.1488 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. e1488 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Ellen Evers ◽

Han de Vries ◽

Berry M. Spruijt ◽

Elisabeth H.M. Sterck

Keyword(s):

Cognitive Abilities ◽

Social Life ◽

Emotional Responses ◽

Emotional Memory ◽

Agent Based Model ◽

Agent Based ◽

Partner Preferences ◽

Specific Accumulation ◽

Group Members

Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual’s internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on emotional bookkeeping to maintain their social bonds.

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Informal risk-sharing between smallholders may be threatened by formal insurance: Lessons from a stylized agent-based model

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0248757 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. e0248757

Author(s):

Meike Will ◽

Jürgen Groeneveld ◽

Karin Frank ◽

Birgit Müller

Keyword(s):

Side Effects ◽

Low Income ◽

Risk Sharing ◽

Agent Based Model ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Agent Based ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Negative Side Effects ◽

Informal Risk Sharing

Microinsurance is promoted as a valuable instrument for low-income households to buffer financial losses due to health or climate-related risks. However, apart from direct positive effects, such formal insurance schemes can have unintended side effects when insured households lower their contribution to traditional informal arrangements where risk is shared through private monetary support. Using a stylized agent-based model, we assess impacts of microinsurance on the resilience of those smallholders in a social network who cannot afford this financial instrument. We explicitly include the decision behavior regarding informal transfers. We find that the introduction of formal insurance can have negative side effects even if insured households are willing to contribute to informal risk arrangements. However, when many households are simultaneously affected by a shock, e.g. by droughts or floods, formal insurance is a valuable addition to informal risk-sharing. By explicitly taking into account long-term effects of short-term transfer decisions, our study allows to complement existing empirical research. The model results underline that new insurance programs have to be developed in close alignment with established risk-coping instruments. Only then can they be effective without weakening functioning aspects of informal risk management, which could lead to increased poverty.

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