Eastward Shift of Interannual Climate Variability in the South Indian Ocean since 1950

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Tomoki Tozuka
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Modes ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Interannual Climate Variability

AbstractThe subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and Ningaloo Niño are the two dominant modes of interannual climate variability in the subtropical South Indian Ocean. Observations show that the SIOD has been weakening in the recent decades, while Ningaloo Niño has been strengthening. In this study, we investigate the causes for such changes by analyzing climate model experiments using the NCAR Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Ensemble-mean results from CESM1 large-ensemble (CESM1-LE) suggest that the external forcing causes negligible changes in the amplitudes of the SIOD and Ningaloo Niño, suggesting a dominant role of internal climate variability. Meanwhile, results from CESM1 pacemaker experiments reveal that the observed changes in the two climate modes cannot be attributed to the effect of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in either the tropical Pacific or tropical Indian Oceans. By further comparing different ensemble members from the CESM1-LE, we find that a Warm Pool Dipole mode of decadal variability, with opposite SSTA in the southeast Indian Ocean and the western-central tropical Pacific Ocean plays an important role in driving the observed changes in the SIOD and Ningaloo Niño. These changes in the two climate modes have considerable impacts on precipitation and sea level variabilities in the South Indian Ocean region.

Interannual to decadal variability in subtropical circulation transport in the south Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Motoki Nagura
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Subsurface Flow ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
Meridional Velocity ◽  
South Indian

<p><span>This study estimates variability in meridional velocity and transport of the subtropical circulation in the south Indian Ocean using in-situ hydrographic observations, satellite altimetry and two reanalysis products for the period from 2006 to 2017. Previous studies used the zonal difference of satellite sea surface height (SSH) between the western and eastern parts of the basin as an index to variability in basinwide meridional geostrophic transport.</span> <span>This study estimates </span><span>meridional geostrophic velocity in the upper 1800 m from in-situ observations and compares results with SSH variability.</span><span> Results show that zonal SSH difference represents a surface trapped variability in meridional velocity, the amplitude of which is large in the upper 250 m and decreases to zero at about 1000 m depth. Zonal SSH difference is significantly correlated with zonally integrated meridional transport relative to 1000 m depth. It is likely that wind variability both in the south Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean is responsible for this surface trapped variability, as is suggested by past studies. Results of this study also show meridional velocity variability at subsurface, which peaks in magnitude at about 400 to 800 m depth and is not correlated with zonal SSH difference. Waves radiated from the eastern boundary are possibly responsible for the generation of this subsurface flow, but detailed forcing mechanisms are not known in this study. This subsurface flow can contribute to interannual variability in mode water transport and warrants a further study.</span></p>

Changes in the relationship between spring precipitation in southern China and tropical Pacific-South Indian Ocean SST

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
XiaoJing Jia ◽  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
QiFeng Qian
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe present study explores the changed relationship between the interannual variations in spring (April-May) precipitation over southern China (SPSC) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and South Indian Ocean during the 1960-2017 period. Observational analysis shows that the relation between SPSC and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was significant before the mid-1980s (P1) and after the early 2000s (P3) but insignificant from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s (P2). In P2, positive anomalous SPSC was significantly correlated with negative anomalous SST in the South Indian Ocean. During this period, an anomalous anticyclone and intensified southwesterly winds tended to appear over tropical India accompanied by a negative anomalous South Indian Ocean SST, which caused anomalous low-level convergence over the western Pacific. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tended to weaken and retreat eastward. This resulted in anomalous moisture convergence in southern China, favoring enhanced SPSC. Further analysis shows that the negative South Indian Ocean SST anomalies tended to induce anomalous cross-equatorial vertical circulation where the South Indian Ocean and southern China are controlled by descent and ascent air flow. The ascent motion may also contribute to positive anomalous SPSC. The observed contribution of the South Indian Ocean SST anomalies to the SPSC variation is confirmed by numerical experiments using an atmospheric model. The intensified variance of SST in the South Indian Ocean and the eastward shift of the ENSO-related circulation anomalies over the western tropical Pacific may partly account for the changes in the SST-SPSC relationship.

Impacts of ocean currents on the South Indian Ocean extratropical storm track through the relative wind effect

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-61
Author(s):  
Hyodae Seo ◽  
Hajoon Song ◽  
Larry W. O’Neill ◽  
Matthew R. Mazloff ◽  
Bruce D. Cornuelle
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Wind Effect ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Relative Wind

AbstractThis study examines the role of the relative wind (RW) effect (wind relative to ocean current) in the regional ocean circulation and extratropical storm track in the South Indian Ocean. Comparison of two high-resolution regional coupled model simulations with/without the RW effect reveals that the most conspicuous ocean circulation response is the significant weakening of the overly energetic anticyclonic standing eddy off Port Elizabeth, South Africa, a biased feature ascribed to upstream retroflection of the Agulhas Current (AC). This opens a pathway through which the AC transports the warm and salty water mass from the subtropics, yielding marked increases in sea surface temperature (SST), upward turbulent heat flux (THF), and meridional SST gradient in the Agulhas retroflection region. These thermodynamic and dynamic changes are accompanied by the robust strengthening of the local low-tropospheric baroclinicity and the baroclinic wave activity in the atmosphere. Examination of the composite lifecycle of synoptic-scale storms subjected to the high THF events indicates a robust strengthening of the extratropical storms far downstream. Energetics calculations for the atmosphere suggest that the baroclinic energy conversion from the basic flow is the chief source of increased eddy available potential energy, which is subsequently converted to eddy kinetic energy, providing for the growth of transient baroclinic waves. Overall, the results suggest that the mechanical and thermal air-sea interactions are inherently and inextricably linked together to substantially influence the extratropical storm tracks in the South Indian Ocean.

Spiciness Anomalies of Subantarctic Mode Water in the South Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 3927-3953
Author(s):  
Motoki Nagura
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Surface Mixed Layer ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
Horizontal Advection ◽  
South Indian ◽  
Subantarctic Mode Water

AbstractThis study investigates spreading and generation of spiciness anomalies of the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) located on 26.6 to 26.8 σθ in the south Indian Ocean, using in situ hydrographic observations, satellite measurements, reanalysis datasets, and numerical model output. The amplitude of spiciness anomalies is about 0.03 psu or 0.13°C and tends to be large along the streamline of the subtropical gyre, whose upstream end is the outcrop region south of Australia. The speed of spreading is comparable to that of the mean current, and it takes about a decade for a spiciness anomaly in the outcrop region to spread into the interior up to Madagascar. In the outcrop region, interannual variability in mixed layer temperature and salinity tends to be density compensating, which indicates that Eulerian temperature or salinity changes account for the generation of isopycnal spiciness anomalies. It is known that wintertime temperature and salinity in the surface mixed layer determine the temperature and salinity relationship of a subducted water mass. Considering this, the mixed layer heat budget in the outcrop region is estimated based on the concept of effective mixed layer depth, the result of which shows the primary contribution from horizontal advection. The contributions from Ekman and geostrophic currents are comparable. Ekman flow advection is caused by zonal wind stress anomalies and the resulting meridional Ekman current anomalies, as is pointed out by a previous study. Geostrophic velocity is decomposed into large-scale and mesoscale variability, both of which significantly contribute to horizontal advection.

Interannual Variability in Sea Surface Height at Southern Midlatitudes of the Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 1595-1609
Author(s):  
Motoki Nagura ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Surface Height ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Eastern Boundary ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The Indian Ocean

AbstractThis study examines interannual variability in sea surface height (SSH) at southern midlatitudes of the Indian Ocean (10°–35°S). Our focus is on the relative role of local wind forcing and remote forcing from the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We use satellite altimetry measurements, an atmospheric reanalysis, and a one-dimensional wave model tuned to simulate observed SSH anomalies. The model solution is decomposed into the part driven by local winds and that driven by SSH variability radiated from the western coast of Australia. Results show that variability radiated from the Australian coast is larger in amplitude than variability driven by local winds in the central and eastern parts of the south Indian Ocean at midlatitudes (between 19° and 33°S), whereas the influence from eastern boundary forcing is confined to the eastern basin at lower latitudes (10° and 17°S). The relative importance of eastern boundary forcing at midlatitudes is due to the weakness of wind stress curl anomalies in the interior of the south Indian Ocean. Our analysis further suggests that SSH variability along the west coast of Australia originates from remote wind forcing in the tropical Pacific, as is pointed out by previous studies. The zonal gradient of SSH between the western and eastern parts of the south Indian Ocean is also mostly controlled by variability radiated from the Australian coast, indicating that interannual variability in meridional geostrophic transport is driven principally by Pacific winds.

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