Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe

Global soil water availability is challenged by the effects of climate change and a growing population. On average 70 % of freshwater extraction is attributed to agriculture, and the demand is increasing. In this study, the effects of climate change on the evolution of the irrigation water requirement to sustain current crop productivity are assessed by using the FAO crop growth model AquaCrop version 6.1. The model is run at 0.5° lat × 0.5° lon resolution over the European mainland, assuming a general C3-type of crop, and forced by climate input data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase three (ISIMIP3). First, the performance of AquaCrop surface soil moisture (SSM) simulations using historical meteorological input from two ISIMIP3 forcing datasets is evaluated with satellite-based SSM estimates. When driven by ISIMIP3a reanalysis meteorology for the years 2011–2016, daily simulated SSM values have an unbiased root-mean-square difference of 0.08 and 0.06 m3m−3 with SSM retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions, respectively. When forced with ISIMIP3b meteorology from five Global Climate Models (GCM) for the years 2011–2020, the historical simulated SSM climatology closely agrees with the climatology of the reanalysis-driven AquaCrop SSM climatology as well as the satellite-based SSM climatologies. Second, the evaluated AquaCrop model is run to quantify the future irrigation requirement, for an ensemble of five GCMs and three different emission scenarios. The simulated net irrigation requirement (Inet) of the three summer months for a near and far future climate period (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) is compared to the baseline period of 1985–2014, to assess changes in the mean and interannual variability of the irrigation demand. Averaged over the continent and the model ensemble, the far future Inet is expected to increase by 67 mm year–1 (+30 %) under a high emission scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0. Central and southern Europe are the most impacted with larger Inet increases. The interannual variability of Inet is likely to increase in northern and central Europe, whereas the variability is expected to decrease in southern regions. Under a high mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6), the increase in Inet will stabilize around 40 mm year–1 towards the end of the century and interannual variability will still increase but to a smaller extent. The results emphasize a large uncertainty in the Inet projected by various GCMs.

Indian Ocean Subtropical Underwater and the Interannual Variability in its Annual Subduction Rate Associated with the Southern Annular Mode

In this study, the Indian Ocean subtropical underwater (IOSTUW) was investigated as a subsurface salinity maximum using Argo floats (2000–2020) for the first time. It has mean salinity, potential temperature and potential density values of 35.54 ± 0.29 psu, 17.91 ± 1.66 °C, and 25.56 ± 0.35 kg m−3, respectively, and mainly extends between 10°S and 30°S along the isopycnal surface in the subtropical south Indian Ocean. The annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW during the period of 2004-2019 was investigated based on a gridded Argo dataset. The results revealed a mean value of 4.39 Sv (1 Sv=106 m3s−1) with an interannual variability that is closely related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The variation in the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW is dominated by the lateral induction term, which largely depends on the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the sea surface salinity (SSS) maximum region. The anomalies of winter MLD is primarily determined by SAM-related air-sea heat flux and zonal wind anomalies through modulation of the buoyancy. As a result, the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW generally increased when the SAM index showed negative anomalies and decreased when the SAM index showed positive anomalies. Exceptional cases occurred when the wind anomaly within the SSS maximum region was weak or was dominated by its meridional component.

Role of wind, mesoscale dynamics and coastal circulation in the interannual variability of South Vietnam Upwelling, South China Sea. Answers from a high resolution ocean model

The South Vietnam Upwelling (SVU) develops in the South China Sea off the Vietnamese coast under the influence of southwest monsoon winds. A very high resolution configuration (1 km at the coast) of the SYMPHONIE model was developed over the western coastal region of the South China Sea. A simulation was performed over the period 2009–2018 to study the functioning, variability and influence of oceanic circulation and hydrology in the coastal region, in particular of the SVU. The realism of the simulation in terms of representation of ocean dynamics and water masses, from daily to interannual and coastal to regional scales, is assessed here in detail by comparison with available satellite data and 4 sets of in-situ observations. The interannual variability of the SVU is examined for its 4 main development areas: the southern (SCU) and northern (NCU) coasts, the offshore area (OFU), and the Sunda Shelf area off the Mekong Delta (MKU). For the SCU and OFU, our results confirm the driving role of the summer mean wind and the summer circulation over the offshore area in the interannual variability of the upwelling intensity. They moreover reveal the impact of the spatial and temporal organization of mesoscale ocean structures and high frequency atmospheric forcing. For the NCU, the upwelling interannual variability does not seem to be related to regional scale forcing and dynamics, but is mainly determined by coastal mesoscale structures and circulation: similar summer wind conditions can be associated with very contrasting NCU intensities, and vice versa, depending on the circulation in the NCU area. Finally, our study reveals that upwelling also develops off the Mekong Delta, with an interannual variability mostly determined by the summer wind and the wind-driven circulation over the SVU region.

A numerical modelling study of the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean

A simple reductA1 gravity wind-driven ocean circulation model is used to study the interannual variability in the upper layer of the Indian Ocean (24°S-23°N and 3S°E-IIS0E). The monthly mean wind stress for the period 1977-1986 are used as a forcing in the model. The model reproduces most of the observed features of the annual cycle of the upper layer circulation in the Indian Ocean when was forced with the ten-year average monthly mean wind. The circulation features and the model upper layer thickness show considerable interannual variability in most part of the basin; in particular, the Somali Current, the basin wide southern hemisphere gyre, the Equatorial Currents and the gyres in the Bay of Bengal. Six consecutive years starting from 1978 to 1983 which include two bad monsoon years of 1979 and 1982 are chosen to study the interannual variability. February circulation field shows stronger Equatorial Counter Currents in bad monsoon years, whereas. the cunents north of Madagascar flowing up to the African coast are found to be stronger in good monsoon years. The southward return flow from the Southern Gyre in August is strong and more to southern latitudes in the bad monsoon years. The flow circulated eastward to form another eddy east of Southern Gyre. The basin wide gyre of the southern hemisphere (SH) shows less variability in two consecutive normal years than in contrasting years.