Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents
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Data Set
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We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.
2003 ◽
Vol 72
(4)
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pp. 495-530
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