Documentos de inteligência como fonte: o caso do Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

A proposta deste artigo é explorar as potencialidades e os limites dos documentos de agências de inteligência como fonte para os historiadores. Para isso, será usado o caso dos documentos do Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), especialmente durante os anos 1950 e 1960, quando a instituição investigou e monitorou de forma intensa vários movimentos sociais nos Estados Unidos. Com um histórico bastante repressivo em relação a minorias, organizações de esquerda, e até movimentos supremacistas brancos, o FBI produziu documentação farta sobre seus investigados. Apesar disso, a discussão teórico-metodológica sobre as fontes dessa agência é insuficiente, dado o caráter recente da historiografia sobre a instituição e as limitações de acesso aos arquivos do Bureau. Utilizando como base teórica de análise estudos sobre a atividade de inteligência e considerações sobre arquivologia, pretende-se discutir o olhar do historiador sobre os documentos de agências de informação.

SUPREMACISMO BLANCO Y EXTREMA DERECHA: AMENAZAS PARA LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE AMÉRICA Y MÉXICO

El supremacismo blanco y la extrema derecha estadounidense, de ma- nera paulatina aumenta su presencia política, número de adeptos y ac- ciones violentas que han desencadenado ataques terroristas con resul- tados fatales. Estos hechos de terror están dirigidos hacia personas que no pertenecen a lo que estos grupos supremacistas consideran gente blanca, y entre estos objetivos se encuentra la población de mexicanos que radican, visitan o trabajan en los Estados Unidos de América, así también ciudadanos de ese país y sus instituciones son víctimas de ataques racistas, de ahí que la finalidad del presente documento es el dilucidar las características más relevantes del supremacismo blanco así como sus condiciones actuales, estableciendo que estosgrupos violentos son una amenaza para el gobierno estadounidense y su orden democrático así como para México y sus ciudadanos. Este artículo utilizó textos académicos recientes y se apoyó en la Global Terrorism Database, desarrollado por la Universidad de Maryland, así como en datos estadísticos de la agencia estadounidense Federal Bureau Investigation.

Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents

We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Correctional Staff in the Federal Bureau of Prisons

Objectives. To examine SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) epidemiology and risk factors among Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) staff in the United States. Methods. We calculated the SARS-CoV-2 case rate among 37 640 BOP staff from March 12 to June 17, 2020, using payroll and COVID-19–specific data. We compared occupational factors among staff with and without known SARS-CoV-2 using multiple logistic regression, controlling for demographic characteristics. We calculated relative risk among staff in stand-alone institutions versus complexes (> 1 institution). Results. SARS-CoV-2 was reported by 665 staff across 59.8% of institutions, a case rate of 1766.6 per 100 000. Working in dorm-style housing and in detention centers were strong risk factors, whereas cell-based housing was protective; these effects were erased in complexes. Occupational category was not associated with SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions. SARS-CoV-2 infection was more likely among staff working in institutions where physical distancing and limiting exposure to a consistent set of staff and inmates are challenging. Public Health Implications. Mitigation strategies—including augmented staff testing, entry and exit testing among inmates, limiting staff interactions across complexes, and increasing physical distancing by reducing occupancy in dorm-style housing—may prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections among correctional staff. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print April 15, 2021: e1–e4. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306237 )

Theft, Opioid Pills, Unemployment, and Insurance: A Longitudinal Analysis of American Counties in the Wake of the Opioids Crisis

This study examines the relationships between prescription opioid pills, unemployment, health insurance, and theft. Covering the years 2006–2012, our data are an aggregate of information from the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Incident-Based Reporting System, and the American Community Survey (ACS). The unit of analysis is time nested within counties. Preliminary results demonstrate that there were approximately 46 prescription opioid pills distributed per person annually in the United States between 2006 and 2012. Multivariate results reveal that counties with higher numbers of prescription opioid pills tend to experience significantly higher patterns of theft. Interestingly, health insurance is positively associated with theft while unemployment appears to protect against theft. The relationship between pills and theft is also conditioned by both unemployment and health insurance. Future research should explore these relationships to better inform efforts at making responsible social policy in the midst of the opioids crisis.

Misogynistic Tweets Correlate With Violence Against Women

How online social behavior covaries with real-world outcomes remains poorly understood. We examined the relationship between the frequency of misogynistic attitudes expressed on Twitter and incidents of domestic and family violence that were reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. We tracked misogynistic tweets in more than 400 areas across 47 American states from 2013 to 2014. Correlation and regression analyses found that misogynistic tweets were related to domestic- and family-violence incidents in those areas. A cross-lagged model showed that misogynistic tweets positively predicted domestic and family violence 1 year later; however, this effect was small. Results were robust to several known predictors of domestic violence. Our findings identify geolocated online misogyny as co-occurring with domestic and family violence. Because the longitudinal relationship between misogynistic tweets and domestic and family violence was small and conducted at the societal level, more research with multilevel data might be useful in the prediction of future violence.

Age Gradient in Women’s Crime: The Role of Welfare Reform

We investigate how welfare reform in the U.S. in the 1990s shaped the age gradient in women’s property crime arrests. Using Federal Bureau of Investigation data, we investigated the age-patterning of effects of welfare reform on women’s arrests for property crime, the type of crime that welfare reform has been shown to affect. We found that welfare reform reduced women’s property crime arrests by about 4%, with particularly strong effects for women ages 25 to 29, slightly stronger effects in states with stricter work incentives, and much stronger effects in states with high per capita criminal justice expenditures.

A New Panel Dataset for Studies Using Substate Units of Analysis and Indicators of Drug Activity

This research note reports on the creation of a new panel dataset using multiple waves of substate estimates from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. It also provides identifying information that contains state, place, and/or agency codes for merging additional datasets at levels below the state. The process for creating this dataset and for merging external data is described. This research note ends by providing an example analysis utilizing the panel dataset in combination with law enforcement personnel data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and forfeiture data from municipalities in Minnesota to analyze the relationship between civil asset forfeiture and crime.